Donna Cournoyer, Author at Moore Advisors

July 2026 Market Recap: Financial Markets Update: Trés Amusant

In July, I visited Old Orchard Beach, Maine. The cottage where I stayed with extended family is a short walk from Palace Playland, an amusement park, which first opened in 1902.

My style of ride is the Merry-Go-Round: old-fashioned, somewhat whimsical – and most importantly, one directional. My 12-year-old niece has a different vibe.

Attempting to curry favor, I accompanied her on HyperJump, which Palace Playland’s website describes as: “feel your heart race as you spin around and defy gravity with bursts of speed that send you soaring up and down.”

The HyperJump description is accurate; I may have scored a point with my niece; and two minutes of terror reaffirmed my amusement park ride preferences.

July’s market activity encompassed elements of both Carousel and HyperJump.

Performance for a good portion of the stock and bond markets was Carousel-like. Foreign stocks (+1.6%), US Treasury Bills (+0.3%) and US Large Company Stocks (+0.1%) all recorded modest positive performance in July.

Other segments of the financial markets, including US Bonds (-1.3%) and Foreign Bonds (-1.7%), registered modest negative performance. Small company stocks declined a bit more (-3.1%), but results were far from stomach-turning.

HyperJump activity was concentrated mainly in the technology sector (-5.6%), and the gyrations were more obvious by looking at individual stock performance for the month.

As the chart below indicates, stock prices of major tech companies ranged from +25% to -35%. Several companies involved in cloud computing and data management soared, while semiconductor manufacturers, which had done very well in the first half of 2027, fell particularly hard.

Source: Morningstar

Away from technology sector, oil prices increased by more than 20% in July, pushed higher by increased hostilities in the Middle East, which helped boost Energy sector stocks by 12%.

In sum, I concur with sentiment shared recently in a note by Jeremy Siegel, Emeritus Professor of Finance at Wharton and Senior Economist at WisdomTree: “The recent rotation away from the market’s most speculative leadership, while uncomfortable for some investors, strengthens rather than weakens the foundation of this bull market.”

Another way of framing this: prices for some technology stocks had come too far, too fast. The downward adjustment in their share prices in July, without a broad-based stock sell-off, is a healthy sign for the market as a whole.

Here are results for July and 2026 Year-to-Date, compared to longer-term annualized returns (10-Year Trailing):

Note: YTD 2026 as of July 31; Source: Morningstar

-RK

Donna Cournoyer In Reading Recommendations

Reading Recommendation: Reflections on the Semiquincentennial

Donna Cournoyer In College Planning

When Your Kid Still Can’t Decide – And It’s Almost Senior Year

This is not a topic you will hear much about when the college discussion comes up, or when reading college planning articles, but it is one worth exploring. You may feel like you are all supposed to have everything figured out, the school, the finances, and the major.

However, some high school kids have not figured out what they want to do with their life yet. And that is OK.

Summer is supposed to feel like a break. But if you’re the parent of a rising senior who still has no idea where — or even whether — they want to go to college, this particular summer probably doesn’t feel much like one.

I hear this a lot: “My kid is interested in everything and committed to nothing.” Or the flip side — “They have no idea what they want to do, so they don’t see the point of any of it.”

Here’s the truth: this is more common than you think, and it doesn’t have to derail the process. But it does require a different approach — because pushing harder on a kid who’s already shut down rarely ends well.

First, Separate Their Indecision from Your Timeline

Think about this — the college application process was designed around deadlines, not around human development. Some 17-year-olds genuinely don’t know what they want yet, and that’s not a failure. It’s actually pretty normal.

What is a problem is letting their uncertainty become a reason to do nothing — because the financial and logistical decisions don’t wait for clarity. Deposits, financial aid packages, scholarship deadlines — these have hard stops.

So, the first move is to separate two things:

What your child needs to figure out (direction, interest, fit)
What you need to drive forward (the financial strategy, the list, the paperwork)

You can do your job even while they’re still working on theirs.

Give Them a Smaller Question to Answer

One of the most common mistakes I see — in conversations with clients’ kids — is someone asking too big a question too soon. “What do you want to do with your life?” is paralyzing. No wonder they go quiet.

Try a smaller focus:

What don’t you want? Sometimes elimination is easier than selection. A kid who can’t name a dream school can often rattle off everything they don’t want — huge lecture halls, a campus in the middle of nowhere, a school that feels like an extension of high school.
What lights you up, even a little? It doesn’t have to be a major or a career. A flicker of interest in food science, environmental policy, or film is enough to start building a list around.
What kind of experience do you want? Big campus energy vs. small community? Urban vs. rural? Close to home or far away? These aren’t career questions — they’re easier to answer, and they narrow the field considerably.

The goal isn’t a five-year plan. The goal is to have enough direction to build a working college list.

Build the List Anyway — With a Financial Safety Built In

Here’s where I push back a little with families: don’t wait for your child to fall in love with a school before you start building the list. Build it around them.

I watched literally hundreds of families fall in love with the university where I worked while on tour, and heard parents say repeatedly, “Well, they love it here, I guess this is it”, without any acknowledgement of price. (It was a beautiful campus on the ocean.)

Which is part of my point here, money has to enter the conversation.

Consider this — every list needs at least one school where:

Your child would genuinely attend if accepted
Acceptance is very likely given their academic profile
The cost is manageable without merit aid — or where merit aid is highly likely

Item #3 is the financial safety, and it’s the one most families forget. I’ve worked with families who built a great, balanced academic list and ended up with no good financial options when the merit scholarship and financial aid letters came in.

That’s a painful place to be in April of senior year.

An undecided kid is actually a good candidate for schools with strong exploratory or undecided tracks — many excellent schools make it easy to start broad and declare later. That’s a selling point, not a compromise.

Have the Money Conversation Now — Not in April

If your child is lukewarm on the whole college idea, the last thing you want is a financial surprise making the decision harder. Or better yet, committing to a school with a high cost of attendance. Before senior year starts, have an honest conversation about what you can afford — and what you’re willing to spend.

That means knowing:

Your student aid index (what FAFSA will calculate for financial aid eligibility)
What a realistic merit aid scenario looks like at different types of schools
Whether there’s a ceiling on what you’ll borrow or co-sign, or pay monthly
What a gap year looks like financially if it comes to that

In my experience, kids who “can’t decide” sometimes can’t decide because they’re sensing — correctly — that the adults around them haven’t fully worked it out either.

When you can have a clear, calm money conversation, it often takes pressure off the whole thing.

What If They’re Genuinely Resistant?

Some kids aren’t undecided — they’re resistant. They don’t want to go, or they’re not ready, and no amount of campus tours is going to change that this summer.

If that’s your situation, here’s what I’d suggest:

Don’t force it. A reluctant freshman who isn’t ready is an expensive mistake — both financially and emotionally.
Explore alternatives openly. Gap years, community college, certificate programs, and work experience are legitimate options. Treating them as such (rather than as failures) often reduces the pressure enough that kids can think.
Keep the financial strategy moving anyway. Even if college is deferred a year, your savings, your tax picture, and your aid eligibility will all benefit from planning now.

The Bottom Line

An undecided kid in the summer before senior year is not a crisis — it’s a signal to adjust your approach. Lead with smaller questions, build the financial picture regardless, and make sure the list includes at least one option that works for your family no matter what.

The goal isn’t to manufacture enthusiasm your child doesn’t feel yet. It’s to make sure that when they do get there — and most of them do — you’ve kept the door open and the options real.

That’s what good planning looks like.

-DC

Donna Cournoyer In Personal Data Security

Protecting Your Personal & Financial Information

Identity theft and financial fraud can happen to anyone — and recovering from them is stressful, time-consuming, and costly. Fraud is no longer a distant threat: the FBI logged more than one million online financial crime complaints in 2025, with losses totaling nearly $21 billion, a 26% increase from the prior year.

A June 2026 survey by the CFP Board found that 3 in 5 Americans have either personally encountered financial fraud or know someone who has in the past three years.

Today’s scammers aren’t just sending clumsy emails full of typos. They use artificial intelligence to:

Clone voices
Generate convincing video calls, and
Create personalized messages that include your real name and account details

At the same time, some of the oldest tricks — like stealing a check from your mailbox — remain very much alive. The good news is that many of the most effective protections are simple, free, and take only a few minutes to put in place.

1. Place a Credit Freeze

A Credit Freeze credit freeze – also called a security freeze – prevents lenders from accessing your credit report, which stops new accounts from being opened in your name. This is the single most effective step you can take to prevent identity theft. It is free, does not affect your credit score, and can be temporarily lifted whenever you need to apply for credit.

Freeze your credit at all four major bureaus:

• Equifax — equifax.com | 1-800-685-1111

• Experian — experian.com | 1-888-397-3742

• TransUnion — transunion.com | 1-888-909-8872

• Innovis — innovis.com | 1-800-540-2505

2. Never Share Sensitive Information by Email

Email is not secure. An email account can be compromised in several ways. Emails can be intercepted, forwarded without your knowledge, stored indefinitely, and accessed if either your account or the recipient’s account is ever breached.

For these reasons, email should never be used to transmit sensitive personal or financial information.

Never include any of the following in an email:

Bank or investment account numbers — including routing numbers, brokerage account numbers, or wire transfer instructions
Social Security numbers — yours, your spouse’s, or your dependents’
Passwords, PINs, or security codes — for any account, device, or online service
Credit or debit card numbers — including expiration dates and CVV security codes
Driver’s license, passport, or Medicare/insurance ID numbers — these are high-value targets for medical and government identity fraud

What to do instead:

Call instead of emailing: when an institution needs sensitive information, provide it over the phone using their official published number.
Use secure portals: banks, brokerages, and financial advisors use encrypted client portals specifically for sharing sensitive documents. Always use these rather than email attachments.
If emailing documents is unavoidable: password-protect the file and communicate the password through a separate channel (such as a phone call), never in the same email.

3. Use a Password Manager

Weak or reused passwords are one of the most common ways criminals gain access to financial accounts. The good news is that newer, more secure methods are often more convenient than traditional passwords.

Use a Password Manager

A password manager (such as Bitwarden, Apple Passwords, or 1Password) generates and stores strong, unique passwords for every account. It will also refuse to fill in credentials on a fake website — a powerful protection against phishing.
Never reuse passwords across different accounts. If one site is breached, criminals will try that same password everywhere else.
Use fake answers to security questions (e.g., “Mother’s maiden name: k7#mQzT9”) and store them in your password manager. Real answers to these questions are often findable online.

Use Passkeys When Available

Passkeys are a newer sign-in technology that replaces passwords entirely. When a website supports passkeys, use them — you cannot be tricked into giving a criminal your passkey the way you can with a password, because passkeys never leave your device.

Strengthen Two-Factor Authentication (2FA)

Enable 2FA on every financial, email, and social media account. Two-factor authentication requires a second form of verification before allowing access, making it significantly harder for someone who has obtained your password to get into your account.
Use a hardware security key (like a YubiKey) when available — it is the most secure 2FA option and cannot be intercepted.
Use an authenticator app (like Google Authenticator or Authy) as your next-best option. It is significantly safer than receiving codes by text message.
Avoid SMS text codes as your 2FA method whenever possible. Text-based codes can be intercepted through SIM-swap attacks.

4. Protect Your Social Security Number

Your Social Security number (SSN) is the master key to your financial identity — guard it carefully.

Never carry your Social Security card in your wallet. Store it in a locked, secure location at home.
Do not provide your SSN unless absolutely required. Ask why it is needed and how it will be protected before sharing it.
Create a “my Social Security” account at ssa.gov/myaccount to prevent someone else from creating one in your name.
Activate SIM-swap protection with your mobile carrier. SIM swapping is a fraud technique where a criminal convinces your carrier to transfer your phone number to their device, giving them access to text-based verification codes. Call your carrier and ask them to add a PIN or passcode requirement before any changes can be made to your account.

5. Monitor Your Credit & Financial Accounts

Early detection is critical. The CFP Board survey found that more than 2 in 5 fraud victims discovered the fraud within 24 hours — and acting quickly in that window significantly improves the odds of limiting losses and recovering funds.

Review your free credit reports at AnnualCreditReport.com — you are entitled to one free report per bureau per year. Review all three.
Sign up for free credit monitoring through your bank, credit card issuer, or a service like Credit Karma or Experian.
Set up account alerts through your bank and brokerage. Most institutions let you receive a notification for transactions above a threshold you set, login activity from new devices, and password or contact information changes.
Review your Social Security earnings record annually at ssa.gov/myaccount to check for fraudulent employment reported in your name.
If a data breach occurs at any institution where you have an account, change your login credentials immediately — even if you have not been directly notified by that institution.

6. Watch Out for Phishing & Scams

Most identity theft does not involve sophisticated hacking — it involves tricking you. According to the CFP Board survey, fraud arrives most commonly through text message (57% of victims reported this channel), email (55%), and phone calls (54%). No single channel is safe; the fact that a message arrives through a channel you use every day does not make it legitimate.

The Golden Rule: You Initiate Contact

Do not reply to suspicious emails, texts, or calls
Do not click links from unrecognized sources
Do not provide any information to someone who has contacted you
Instead, contact the institution yourself using a trusted method: type their URL directly into your browser, use a saved bookmark, call the number on the back of your card, or use their official mobile app. Caller ID can be spoofed, so the name on your screen is not proof of identity.

Watch for Urgency — It’s the Biggest Red Flag

A sense of urgency — “your account will be closed,” “act within 24 hours,” “your grandson is in jail and needs bail money now” — is one of the most reliable warning signs of a scam. Legitimate organizations do not pressure you to act immediately. Pause before acting on any message that creates urgency.

Common Scam Types

Phishing (email) and smishing (text): these were the two most commonly reported forms of fraud in the CFP Board survey. Suspicious messages urge urgent action — verifying your account, claiming a package is stuck, or warning of a breach. Go directly to the company’s website rather than clicking any link.
Vishing (phone) and imposter scams: someone poses as a trusted organization — the IRS, Social Security, Medicare, your bank, or tech support. Hang up on unsolicited callers requesting account numbers, Social Security numbers, or passwords.
AI-driven impersonation: scammers increasingly use AI-generated voices and deepfake video to convincingly impersonate a family member or someone you trust. A call that sounds exactly like a loved one in distress is not proof that it is them.
Investment fraud: be skeptical of any unsolicited investment opportunity, particularly those involving cryptocurrency, offshore accounts, or promises of guaranteed or unusually high returns. If someone you don’t know well is enthusiastically steering you toward an investment, that is a red flag.
Romance and relationship scams: someone builds rapport with you online over time, then eventually asks for money.
Lottery and sweepstakes scams: you’ve supposedly won a prize but must pay a fee or taxes first to claim it.
Family impersonation scams: if you receive a call or message from someone claiming to be a family member in trouble and asking for money, hang up. Reach out directly to that person using the contact information already saved in your phone.

Be Careful What You Share on Social Media

Scammers routinely mine public profiles for personal details — your birthday, your hometown, family members’ names, recent travel — that make their impersonation attempts more convincing. The less publicly available information a scammer has about you, the harder it is for them to sound credible.

7. Secure – or Shred – Your Mail & Physical Documents

Physical mail and paper documents remain a surprisingly common source of identity theft, and check theft in particular has been making a quiet comeback.

Thieves steal checks directly from mailboxes and USPS collection boxes — sometimes using long tools with adhesive tips to fish envelopes out of drop boxes. Once they have a check, they use a chemical process called “check washing” to erase the payee’s name and replace it with their own, often increasing the dollar amount as well.

General Mail & Document Security

Retrieve mail promptly and consider a USPS PO box or mail hold when traveling.
Sign up for USPS Informed Delivery (informeddelivery.usps.com) to preview scanned images of your incoming mail each day.
Shred — don’t just discard — all documents containing your name, address, account numbers, or Social Security number. Use a cross-cut or micro-cut shredder.
Opt for paperless statements for bank, investment, and credit card accounts to reduce mail-based exposure.

Protecting Against Check Fraud

Avoid mailing checks whenever a digital alternative exists. Most banks offer free online bill pay, and most government agencies — including the IRS and state tax authorities — accept electronic payment. Zelle, wire transfers, and cashier’s checks are also safer alternatives for larger payments.
If you must write and mail a check, use a gel ink pen, which is significantly more resistant to chemical washing than ballpoint ink. Fill in the entire payee line completely, leaving no blank space a thief could alter.
Drop checks inside a post office rather than in a curbside collection box, a free-standing drop box, or your own mailbox. The USPS has acknowledged that blue collection boxes have been targeted by thieves in many communities.
Review your bank statements promptly each month, and look at the actual check images — not just the dollar amounts — for anything unfamiliar. Pay attention to the handwriting on the payee line; check washing often results in a change in ink or penmanship.
If you are expecting a mailed check to be cashed (for a tax payment, a charitable donation, or any other purpose), follow up within a few weeks if you haven’t received confirmation. Don’t wait months to verify.
Consider switching recurring payments entirely to electronic methods. Automatic bill pay through your bank eliminates the need to write checks for regular expenses like utilities, insurance premiums, and charitable giving.

8. Protect Your Family, Too

Fraud is a family issue, not just an individual one. A CFP Board survey found that older Americans are notably less confident in their ability to detect fraud than younger Americans, and report encountering phishing and smishing at higher rates.

Grandparents and children under 18 are the least likely family members to successfully detect a fraud attempt — yet only 6% of Americans report having spoken with a grandparent about fraud in the past year.

Talk to your adult children and grandchildren about fraud — both the digital variety and check fraud. Ask them to flag anything unusual in your accounts or communications, and offer to do the same for them. Younger people face their own risks, particularly investment scams and fraud encountered on social media.
Establish a family code word that anyone can use to verify an urgent request for money, by phone, text, or email. If a caller cannot produce the code word, treat the request as fraudulent until proven otherwise — this is a simple but effective defense against AI voice-cloning scams.
Ask about designating a trusted contact on your financial accounts. This is a person — typically an adult child or close family member — whom your advisor or institution is authorized to reach out to if something raises concern. It is not a power of attorney and does not give that person authority over your accounts; it simply provides a way to loop in someone you trust when needed.
If you have an aging parent or grandparent, consider helping them set up account alerts, review statements with them periodically, and gently encourage them to call you before responding to any financial request they’re unsure about.
Watch for warning signs that a family member may already be a victim: unusual withdrawals, new “friends” unusually interested in their finances, confusion about recent transactions, or reluctance to discuss their accounts.

9. If You Suspect Fraud, Act Fast – and Don’t Be Embarrassed

Speed matters enormously. If you suspect fraud, your first call should be to the relevant bank or credit card company. From there, contact law enforcement and, if appropriate, file a complaint with the FTC at ReportFraud.ftc.gov or the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center at IC3.gov.

One barrier that keeps many victims from acting is shame. The CFP Board survey found that 1 in 4 fraud victims who did not report the fraud stayed silent because they felt embarrassed. Being targeted by fraud is not a reflection of your intelligence or judgment — these are professional criminals using sophisticated tools. The only real mistake is not reporting it promptly.

Treat your financial advisor as a first call, not a last resort, whenever something feels off. If you receive an unsolicited investment offer, hear about a “too good to be true” opportunity, or are simply uncertain whether a communication is legitimate, call us before you act.

-SM

Sources include the CFP Board of Standards (“Don’t Fall For It: Guarding Against Financial Fraud,” June 2026), the FBI Internet Crime Report 2025, and The New York Times.

Donna Cournoyer In Financial Planning

The Outlook for Social Security – An Update

In our August 2025 letter, MFA founder Susan Moore provided an in-depth overview of Social Security’s financial outlook — including the projected timeline for trust fund depletion, what it could mean for your benefits, and what proposals were circulating in Washington.

Much has happened since then. This month, we bring you up to date on the latest official projections and the new policy developments that are reshaping the Social Security picture.

The 2026 Trustees Report: A Closer Look at the New Numbers

On June 9, 2026, the Social Security Board of Trustees released its annual report on the financial health of the program. The headline finding: the retirement trust fund is running out faster than previously thought.

The Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund — the fund that pays retirement and survivor benefits — is now projected to be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032. That is one year earlier than the 2033 estimate we reported last August.

At that point, if Congress has not acted, the Social Security Administration would be able to pay only 78% of scheduled retirement benefits — an automatic, across-the-board cut of 22%.

The broader Social Security system — which includes disability benefits — tells a somewhat more nuanced story. The Disability Insurance (DI) Trust Fund remains healthy and is projected to be able to pay full benefits through at least 2100.

If Congress were to allow the retirement and disability funds to share reserves (as it has done in the past), the combined depletion date would extend to 2034, at which point 83% of combined benefits would be payable.

Why Did the Outlook Get Worse?

Three factors drove the worsened projections this year:

Lower fertility rates. The trustees lowered their estimate of the long-run fertility rate to 1.75 children per woman, down from 1.9 in last year’s report. Fewer births today mean fewer workers paying into the system decades from now.
Reduced immigration. The projections also reflect lower assumed levels of net immigration going forward. Immigrants make up a meaningful portion of the workforce paying Social Security payroll taxes, so fewer workers coming into the country translates directly into less revenue for the program.
The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” This legislation, enacted on July 4, 2025, made permanent the lower income tax rates from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and added a new deduction of up to $6,000 for taxpayers age 65 and older who meet certain income thresholds. While these provisions benefit many retirees in the short term by reducing their tax bills, they also reduce the revenue flowing into the Social Security trust fund from the income taxation of benefits. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the legislation alone accounts for roughly one-quarter of the worsened 75-year actuarial shortfall.

Taken together, these factors pushed Social Security’s projected 75-year shortfall to approximately $30 trillion, up from $26 trillion last year — a 16% deterioration in a single year.

What Would a 22% Benefit Cut Actually Mean?

For context, here is how a 22% reduction would translate for beneficiaries across different income levels. These are generalized examples; actual amounts depend on individual earnings history and claiming age.

For married couples, the impact would be even more pronounced. A couple where both spouses receive average benefits could see their combined Social Security income drop by roughly $10,600 per year.

What About Current Retirees?

This remains the question we hear most often. The short answer is: current retirees are not immune, but they remain the least likely to be affected by any deliberate policy change.

Here is the important distinction to keep in mind. There are two ways benefits could be reduced:

An automatic cut triggered by trust fund depletion — which, under current law, would affect all beneficiaries, current and future alike, starting in 2032.
A deliberate legislative change — which historically has protected current retirees. Congress has never reduced benefits for people already collecting, and most reform proposals continue to focus changes on future retirees or phase them in gradually over many years.

So the risk facing current retirees is not primarily that Congress will cut their benefits on purpose. The risk is that Congress will fail to act at all, allowing the automatic trust fund depletion mechanism to take effect.

What Is Being Proposed to Address This?

Despite the urgency, Congress has not yet passed any Social Security reform legislation. The political obstacles remain formidable: meaningful fixes require either higher taxes, lower benefits, or some combination of both — none of which is easy to sell to voters. That said, the debate is becoming more active.

Some of the ideas being discussed include:

Raising the Full Retirement Age (FRA) from the current 67 to as high as 69. This would effectively reduce lifetime benefits, particularly for those with shorter life expectancies, even without an explicit benefit “cut.”
Lifting the payroll tax cap. Currently, wages above $184,500 (2026) are not subject to Social Security payroll taxes. Raising or eliminating this cap is one of the most commonly cited ways to improve the program’s finances.
Means-testing and income-based reductions. Some proposals would reduce benefits or slow cost-of-living adjustments for higher-income retirees while preserving or increasing them for lower earners.
Supplemental investment funds. Senators Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and Tim Kaine (D-VA) have put forward a bipartisan proposal that would create a new parallel investment fund, seeded with approximately $1.5 trillion in federal borrowing, to supplement payroll taxes over a 75-year horizon.

No plan has been signed into law. But there is growing acknowledgment on both sides of the aisle that action cannot be deferred indefinitely.

As one analyst at the Brookings Institution noted recently, the window for solutions is narrowing: every year of inaction reduces the available options and leaves less time to phase in changes in a way that gives workers and retirees adequate time to prepare.

Should I Change My Claiming Strategy?

For those of you who have been delaying benefits to maximize your age-70 payout, the question of whether to claim early — to “lock in” benefits before any potential cuts — continues to come up.

Our guidance remains consistent with what we shared in August:

There is no clear reason to change course yet. The rules are unchanged, and delayed claiming still earns you an 8% annual increase in benefits between Full Retirement Age and age 70.
Claiming early does not protect you from an automatic trust fund cut, which would affect all beneficiaries regardless of when they started collecting.
Any deliberate legislative change is still most likely to be structured to protect current beneficiaries, or at minimum to phase in changes gradually.
We continue to recommend basing your claiming decision on your individual circumstances — longevity, tax situation, income needs, and overall financial plan — rather than speculation about policy outcomes.

If there is a sudden, significant policy change that alters this calculus, we will be in touch promptly.

What This Means for Your Financial Plan

The 2026 Trustees Report confirms what prudent financial planning has already accounted for: Social Security’s future is uncertain, and a degree of conservatism is warranted.

Here is how we are thinking about this for our clients:

For clients currently receiving benefits, we do not recommend making immediate changes to your plan. We are monitoring the situation closely.
For clients approaching retirement, we continue to model your plan with a margin of safety that factors in the possibility of modest benefit reductions over time.
For younger clients, Social Security remains part of our planning picture — but not the whole picture. We generally assume a conservative benefit level in projections, which means your portfolio and other savings carry more weight.

-SM

Donna Cournoyer In Market Updates

Market Update June 2026: Halftime in Football & Finance

To my gridiron-wired mind, aspects of the “other football” are curious and bemusing.

For example:

The clock counts up, not down, and keeps running during stoppages, resulting in time mysteriously tacked on at the end of the game
Ties are allowed, considered normal – and often celebrated
Flopping appears to be a legitimate tactic
Offside: a player can be offside without touching the ball: simply interfering with an opponent’s ability to play – blocking their line of sight, for example – while in an offside position can be deemed a violation
Cards: penalty cards accumulate across games: get two yellow cards in separate matches and a player can be suspended for the next match
Advantage Rule: a referee can see a clear foul happen and simply not blow the whistle, waving play on because the fouled team already has the ball in a good position
Substituted players can’t return: once you’re subbed off, you’re done for the match

Fortunately, World Cup games include a break that allows for reflection, discussion with more soccer-savvy acquaintances, and, if necessary, online search to figure out what transpired during the past 45 minutes of play.

Thank goodness for halftime.

Since we’ve reached the halfway point of the calendar year, it’s appropriate to reflect on some of the key developments in the financial markets so far in 2026:

AI: Enthusiasm for Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the ecosystem that supports its development has been a driving force behind demand for technology stocks
Earnings: Strong first-quarter earnings reports from large US companies, along with upward revisions to earnings forecasts, have also helped to buoy stocks
War: US-Iran conflict caused severe dislocation in the oil trade, but the geopolitical shock was short-lived for US investors
Inflation: It has remained sticker than hoped – well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target – keeping bond yields elevated
The Fed: Leadership change at the Federal Reserve has shifted the interest rate policy outlook – new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has signaled a firm commitment to bringing inflation back to 2%, raising the odds of Fed rate hikes later in the year
SpaceX: The company’s Initial Public Offering (IPO) created a major market event – it was the biggest IPO in history. The rocket-satellite-AI company became the sixth largest firm globally and it demonstrated investor interest for new, tech focused companies.
Stock market leadership is broadening beyond technology: after years of tech stock dominance, industrials, financial institutions, healthcare, and small-company stocks began participating more meaningfully in June, a sign often associated with a healthier bull market.

The phenomenon mentioned in the last bullet point has been labelled “The Great Rotation” by some Wall Street commentators.

For more than a decade, a highly concentrated group of very large technology-oriented

companies has driven positive stock market performance.

However, the massive amounts of spending tech companies are now undertaking to actualize their AI-related plans is coming under greater scrutiny by investors.

If the pundits are correct in their characterization of this emerging “rotation” situation, investors have started pulling money out of the “expensive” tech stocks and redeploying that cash into less expensive areas of the market.

The result of a typical rotation is that money stays in the stock market, leadership changes, and positive overall stock market performance continues.

Thus far in 2026, stocks of all shapes and stripes are having another good year, as the middle column in the table below indicates.

But take a closer look at the June data in the left-hand column. US Industrial stocks top the list in performance of the Asset Class Returns table.

The Industrials index, made up mostly of “old economy stocks” – companies such as Caterpillar, Boeing, Union Pacific (railroads), and Eaton (electrical equipment) – outpaced the Technology index (which includes Nvidia, Broadcom, and Meta) by more than 10 percentage points last month.

Note: YTD 2026 as of 6/30/2026; Source: Morningstar

And two other non-tech sectors, Healthcare (+11.5%) and Financials (+9.7%) had even stronger performance in June than Industrials.

One month of old economy stocks outperforming new economy stocks fails to indicate a true “Great Rotation”.

But the shifting of preferences and performance displayed in June are noteworthy and may be a positive sign for the stock market as a whole – and for investors who maintain broadly diversified portfolios.

-RK

Donna Cournoyer In Reading Recommendations

Reading Recommendation: A Richer Retirement

Bill Bengen was a financial planner in the early 1990s who confronted the question that often puzzles aspiring retirees: “When I get to retirement, how much can I spend?”

For his baby boomer clients at the time, there was little expert guidance on the subject. Bengen decided to investigate himself, and in 1994 published his findings in the Journal of Financial Planning under the title Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data.

The article demonstrated that a 4% initial withdrawal rate from a tax-advantaged account had never failed to allow the account to last for at least 30 years, based on data going back to 1926. And thus, the “4% Rule” was born.

Bengen continued to refine his research. His 2025 book, A Richer Retirement: Supercharging the 4% Rule to Spend More and Enjoy More, argues for a new “4.7% Rule”.

Importantly, Bengen reminds retirees that inflation is their “greatest enemy” and emphasizes that retirees must consistently adjust their withdrawals for the higher cost of living.

Bengen’s book is foundational for financial planners and will be of interest to individuals who want to explore the research behind the 4% Rule.

Bengen was recently interviewed by Morningstar, and you can listen to the discussion on the May 19 episode of Morningstar’s The Long View podcast.

Donna Cournoyer In College Planning

You Got the Bill for College – Now What?

That envelope (or email) from the college bursar’s office is coming. Maybe it’s already sitting in your inbox. And if you’ve never seen a college tuition bill before, the first reaction is usually some version of shock — even when you know well ahead of time that the number was coming.

So let’s talk about what to do before you just write the check.

First, Understand What You’re Actually Looking At

A college billing statement isn’t always straightforward. You’ll see tuition, room and board, fees — but you’ll also see credits for financial aid, scholarships, and loans.

Before you do anything, make sure the aid package you were promised is actually reflected on the bill.

Missing scholarships or grants happen more than you’d think, and a quick call to the bursar’s (or business) office can save you thousands. Many bills are confusing. Ask if you don’t understand what you are looking at.

Second, Think Before You Tap That 529

If you have a 529 plan, this is the moment you’ve been saving for — but timing matters. A few things to keep in mind:

Distributions need to match qualified expenses in the same calendar year to stay tax-free
Room and board counts — but only up to the school’s published cost of attendance figures
If your student received a scholarship, you could withdraw that same amount from the 529 with no penalty — though the earnings portion may still be subject to income tax
Be sure the funds go directly from your custodian to the student’s account with the bursar at the college

Third, Consider the Payment Plan

Most schools offer an installment payment plan — typically spreading the semester bill over 4-6 months for a small enrollment fee (usually $50-100). In my experience, this is one of the most underused tools in college financing.

Why pull a lump sum from investments or a 529 all at once when you can spread it out and keep your money working a little longer?

Or, see if there is any room in your monthly income to make payments in place of a loan (or lower your loan). This can be a significant savings, yet many families often look at financing as “all or nothing.”

When you actually have the option, choose a payment plan that fits your budget and allows you to make regular payments to the college out of your monthly cash flow. It is wise to do so if you are able and lower any debt you may be considering as often your 529 is not going to cover the balance for four years.

Finally, Don’t Ignore the Loans Conversation

If federal loans are part of your plan, they don’t just appear — your student needs to accept them through the financial aid portal.

They also have documents to sign such as a promissory note required for the funds to be disbursed to the school. It sounds obvious, but I’ve seen families miss disbursements simply because no one clicked “accept.”

Check that box now and have your student watch for emails from financial aid on documents needed.

Think about this: the families who navigate college costs most successfully aren’t always the ones with the most money. They’re the ones paying attention in June and July, before the bill is actually due.

So take action NOW so you are prepared and ready for fall – and enjoy some relaxing time with your college student who is home for summer!

-DC

Donna Cournoyer In Financial Planning

How Much Can You Spend in Retirement?

Two of the more common questions Susan, Donna, and I hear as planners are of vital importance for those thinking about their financial future are:

“How do I know if I have enough saved for retirement?”
“How much can I safely spend each year without running out of money?”

These are questions without a simple universal answers. But there are two powerful tools that can help: the 4% rule, a well-known rule of thumb rooted in decades of research, and a personalized probability of success analysis, which we build for our clients using financial planning software.

In this article, we want to explain both measures — where each comes from, what it can tell you, and how they can work together to give you a more complete picture of your retirement readiness.

The 4% Rule: A Historically-Grounded Starting Point

The 4% rule was developed in 1994 by financial planner and researcher William Bengen, who set out to answer a question that no one had systematically studied before: what is the maximum amount a retiree can withdraw each year without running out of money?

Rather than guessing about future market returns, Bengen turned to history.

He studied the actual investment returns and inflation data for every quarter going back to January 1926, and reconstructed what would have happened to someone who retired on a specific date, withdrew a set percentage of their savings in their first year, then adjusted that dollar amount for inflation every year thereafter — similar to how Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment works.

Bengen studied hundreds of historical retirees, asking: what is the highest withdrawal rate that would have worked for all of them, including those who retired at the worst possible moments in market history?

Results of Bengen’s Study

The answer: 4% (and with a more diversified portfolio, up to 4.7%). A retiree who withdrew 4% of their starting portfolio value in year one, then adjusted that dollar amount for inflation each subsequent year, would have maintained their portfolio for at least 30 years regardless of when in history they retired — through the Great Depression, the stagflation of the 1970s, the dot-com crash, and the 2008 financial crisis.

In plain terms, a retiree with $1,000,000 in savings could withdraw $40,000 in their first year. If inflation ran at 3% that year, they would take $41,200 in year two, and so on. According to this framework, they would not have run out of money over a 30-year retirement, even in the worst historical environments.

Here’s something important that often surprises people: the 4% rule was calibrated to the single most difficult retirement outcome in nearly a century of data — a retiree who started in October 1968 and faced both a severe bear market and a prolonged period of high inflation. That one cohort ended their 30-year retirement with essentially nothing left.

For virtually every other retiree in history following the same 4% rule, portfolios not only survived — they grew.

Many retirees ended their 30 years with substantially more wealth, in real terms, than they started with. The long-run average across all historical retirees was closer to 7%, meaning most people could have withdrawn nearly double the 4% rate without running out of money.

What the 4% Rule Does Well

Grounded in real history, not assumptions about the future
Provides a quick, memorable benchmark: ff you’re withdrawing less than 4% of your savings each year, you’re in a strong position historically speaking
Reflects actual worst-case scenarios — the kinds of markets and inflation environments that genuinely tested retirees

What It Doesn’t Capture

Bengen himself is clear that the rule was never meant to be a universal prescription and that treating it as one is itself a problem. Because the rule is calibrated to a single worst-case cohort, applying it universally causes most retirees to spend far less than they safely could.

In a recent Morningstar interview, Bengen described the 4% rule as applying only to a very narrow set of circumstances — specifically, retirees facing both high inflation and very high stock market valuations simultaneously — and stressed that most people can do considerably better with a personalized approach.

Beyond the underspending risk, your retirement situation is unique in ways the 4% rule doesn’t account for:

Your tax situation. Withdrawals from taxable accounts are subject to capital gains and income taxes that can meaningfully reduce your spending power — potentially requiring a more conservative withdrawal rate.
Your timeline. If you retire at 60 and live to 95, you need your money to last 35 years, not 30. A longer time horizon calls for a lower initial withdrawal rate.
Your specific goals. Whether you intend to leave an inheritance, cover long-term care costs, or adjust your spending significantly over time all affect what’s appropriate for you.
Current market conditions. Bengen’s research shows that safe withdrawal rates are closely tied to stock market valuations. With today’s market valuations on the higher end of the historical range, the future may look somewhat different than the historical average.

A Note on Inflation

Bengen calls inflation “the greatest enemy of retirees”.

Unlike a market downturn, which typically recovers, sustained high inflation forces retirees to take larger and larger withdrawals over time – accelerating the depletion of their savings.

This is one reason why we pay close attention to inflation trends in general, and specifically for your financial plan. It’s also why a regular review of your plan is recommended.

Probability of Success: Your Personalized Financial Plan

While the 4% rule provides a useful starting point, your financial plan is designed to go much further — and its central metric (in the RightCapital financial planning software that we use with our clients) is called the Probability of Success.

How It Works

The Probability of Success represents the percentage of simulated futures in which your plan does not run out of money during your lifetime.

Here’s how it’s calculated: The software runs 1,000 separate simulations of your financial future. Each simulation uses a different random sequence of investment returns and inflation rates, all drawn from historical market behavior.

One simulation might reflect a scenario similar to the 1970s stagflation; another might mirror the strong markets of the 1990s; another might look like a prolonged downturn shortly after you retire.

After all 1,000 simulations are complete, the software counts how many ended with money still in your plan. If 870 out of 1,000 simulations ended with a positive balance, your Probability of Success is 87%.

What Score Should You Be Aiming For?

We typically target a Probability of Success in the range of 80% to 90% for our clients. Here’s why we find that range to be an appropriate outcome:

A score above 90% is a sign of strength, but it can also indicate that you’re spending less than you could comfortably afford. If your score is very high, it may be worth discussing whether you could increase your spending, give more to family or charity, or retire earlier.
A score between 80% and 90% means your plan is well-positioned. It has weathered the most stressful simulated environments with a strong success rate.
A score between 70% and 80% suggests the plan could benefit from some adjustments — whether to spending levels, savings, retirement timing, or portfolio allocation.
A score below 70% is a signal that more significant changes may be needed.

A plan that succeeds in 100% of simulations is typical one that is very conservative, often meaning you’re spending significantly less than history suggests you could.

We recognize that for some clients, this level of conservatism is preferable. For those clients who have plans with the strongest outcome, though, thinking more expansively about approaches to spending may also merit consideration.

What Makes Your Score Go Up or Down?

Your Probability of Success is driven by the specific details of your plan, including:

Your annual retirement spending. This is typically the most powerful lever. Modestly reducing planned spending can meaningfully improve the score; increasing it has the opposite effect.
When you retire. Delaying retirement by even a year or two can improve the score significantly, both by extending the savings period and by shortening the distribution period.
Your portfolio allocation. The mix of stocks, bonds, and other assets affects both expected returns and the volatility of those returns across simulations.
Sources of guaranteed income. Social Security, pensions, and annuities all reduce the amount your portfolio needs to provide and tend to improve the score.

How These Two Tools Work Together

The 4% rule and your Probability of Success analysis are not competing measures, rather they complement each other, and each is better suited to a different stage of the planning conversation.

Think of the 4% rule as a compass. Before you’ve built your full financial plan, it can quickly orient you: is your situation in the right ballpark?

A prospective retiree withdrawing 3% of their savings annually has significant flexibility; one withdrawing 7% faces real constraints under almost any methodology. That early directional read is genuinely useful.

Your financial plan — and its Probability of Success — is the detailed map.

Once we know your full picture, including your income sources, taxes, goals, timeline, and spending patterns, we can build a plan that reflects your life, not a historical generalization. The probability score becomes the primary measure we track and revisit together over time.

What Both Measures Agree On

Despite using different methodologies, these two approaches are grounded in the same body of evidence about financial markets and inflation.

Bengen himself notes that his historical approach and Monte Carlo simulation generally produce similar conclusions — which is reassuring, since they’re studying the same underlying dynamics.

Both measures also point to the same warning signals:

A sustained rise in inflation is the condition most likely to require a meaningful reduction in withdrawals. Unlike a temporary bear market, persistent inflation continuously forces higher withdrawals, accelerating portfolio depletion.
A significant market decline early in retirement can have an outsized impact on the long-term health of a plan — which is why we pay special attention to portfolio construction and risk management in the years just before and after retirement.

What This Means for You

Our goal in building and maintaining your financial plan is to give you clarity and confidence — the freedom to spend, give, and live in retirement without unnecessary anxiety about money.

One of the most important things that a personalized plan can reveal is that you might have more flexibility than a simple rule of thumb suggests. Both the 4% rule and your Probability of Success are tools in service of that goal.

Here’s what we recommend for our clients:

Review your plan at least annually. Markets change, your spending changes, and your goals evolve. Your Probability of Success should be re-evaluated regularly in light of these changes.
Don’t panic at temporary market declines. History shows that most bear markets recover, and plan adjustments made in the heat of a market downturn often do more harm than good. We’ll help you assess whether any action is truly needed.
Take inflation seriously. If the inflation environment changes meaningfully, it’s worth a conversation about your withdrawal plan.
Think about your full-time horizon. Many people underestimate how long their portfolio may need to last. We encourage our clients to build in a margin of safety by planning for a longer retirement than average life expectancy.

If you’d like to review your current Probability of Success, discuss your withdrawal strategy, or simply talk through how your plan is positioned for the environment ahead, we’d love to hear from you. That’s exactly what we’re here for.

-RK

Donna Cournoyer In Market Updates

May 2026 Market Recap: The Everything Rally

ASteve Sosnick, the chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers, referred to financial market activity in May as “the Everything Rally.” That’s not a bad way to frame what happened last month.

At the start of the month, investors were confronted with an unsigned Iran peace deal, oil above $100, inflation at a three-year high, a brand-new Federal Reserve chair, and a 30-year Treasury yield touching its highest level since 2007.

May closed with Technology sector posting another double-digit monthly gain. The S&P 500 index of large company US stocks rose 5.3% and closed at record highs on 11 days during the month. Foreign stocks gained more than 2.4%, and bond indices (despite large intra-month swings in yields) registered modest positive returns.

May was defined by three themes: the Iran war and its economic consequences; AI delivering broad-based, positive revenue trends in the technology sector; and a bond market that tested investor nerves.

The Iran War — Deal Always “Just Around the Corner”

The U.S.-Iran conflict is now in its fourth month. The Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed to commercial traffic, with only a handful of ships transiting daily versus 120 before the war.

Oil prices swung dramatically on diplomatic signals: Brent crude peaked near $126 in late April, fell toward $87 by month-end, then traded at various points in between as headlines shifted from hope to frustration and back again.

The month’s diplomatic arc was a recurring pattern: a constructive signal would arrive, sending oil sharply lower and stocks higher — only to be followed by a complication. By month-end, the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran remained unsigned, and June opened with the same central question May had posed: when will a deal be signed?

The economic consequences of the conflict were visible throughout the month. Inflation hit 3.8% year-over-year — its highest since 2023 — driven heavily by energy. National average gas prices remained above $4.50 per gallon for most of the month.

And Goldman Sachs and Barclays both cautioned that even if the Strait fully reopened tomorrow, global oil inventories are so depleted that prices likely would normalize only gradually, not immediately.

Artificial Intelligence Delivers Positive Revenue Trends

April validated that AI is driving positive financial results for chip makers. May confirmed that AI demand is broadening into other areas of the technology ecosystem.

Some examples of how AI-driven demand is benefiting tech companies:

Dell Technologies, which many folks associate with personal computers, reported AI server revenue up 757% year-over-year, a record $51.3 billion AI order backlog, and raised its full-year revenue forecast by roughly $27 billion.
Cisco, another “old-line” technology-focused company, known for its networking gear that supports internet activity, raised its full-year AI order guidance to $9 billion — nearly double what it had guided just one quarter earlier.
Nvidia, the new tech standard bearer that designs chips, and also hardware networks to power data centers as well as specialized software, reported $81.6 billion in quarterly revenue — up 85% year-over-year — and guided its next quarter to $91 billion.
Cerebras Systems, which delivers supercomputer systems and cloud-based services, listed its shares through the largest tech initial public offering (IPO) since Uber went public in 2019, saw its shares surge 68% on the first day of trading.

The broader AI narrative for the month was captured well by one market analyst: “We started with chips and memory, but it’s really now about the broad AI infrastructure stack.”

And more AI-related activity is in store for investors in the months ahead, with SpaceX, Anthropic (maker of Claude) and OpenAI (maker of ChatGPT) all expecting to list their shares through IPOs and being trading on stock market exchanges later this year.

The Bond Market’s Warning

Not everything pointed straight up in May.

The bond market delivered a warning mid-month that temporarily interrupted the equity rally. The 30-year Treasury yield approached 5.2% in mid-May – its highest level since 2007, before the financial crisis – and the 10-year Treasury yield approached 4.7% (though bond yields did decline in the back half of May).

The main driver of higher yields was the Iran war’s inflationary impact on energy prices globally. The practical consequence for US households: 30-year fixed mortgage rates climbed back to 6.68%, putting further pressure on an already-stalled housing market.

Adding to the complexity, Kevin Warsh took over as Federal Reserve Chair on May 15, inheriting a divided institution with inflation running well above its 2% target.

The probability of a Fed rate hike in 2026, which was essentially zero a month ago, climbed as high as 45% during the month. Warsh’s first formal interest rate policy decision comes June 16.

Despite the swings in yields, benchmark US bond indices delivered positive returns in May. High quality bonds returned 0.3% for the month, and low quality bonds rose 0.5%.

As June begins, the questions that defined May remain open. The Iran deal is unsigned. Inflation remains elevated. The new Fed chair faces his first policy decision with rate-hike odds that would have seemed unthinkable a few months ago.

And yet the stock market enters June at all-time highs, with US Large Company Stocks up 11.2% for the year and Foreign Stocks up 9.1%. Whether the optimism that has driven the fourth consecutive year of stock market gains (so far) proves durable is the central question for the months ahead.

Here are results for May and 2026 Year-to-Date, compared to longer-term annualized returns (10-Year Trailing):

Note: YTD 2026 as of 5/31/2026; Source: Morningstar

-RK

Donna Cournoyer