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The Outlook for Social Security

In this article, MFA founder Susan Moore demystifies the headlines and hype around Social Security, and answers questions that are on the minds of many people who are approaching, or already in, retirement.

With Social Security often in the headlines, many of you have asked: Will it still be there when I retire? Will my benefits be cut?

These are valid concerns—and we’d like to share where things currently stand, what’s being discussed in Washington, and how it could impact your planning.

When Will the Social Security Trust Fund Run Out?

According to the 2025 Trustees Report, the Social Security Trust Fund is projected to be depleted by 2033. At that point, the program would rely solely on ongoing payroll taxes to pay benefits, which are expected to cover about 77% of scheduled payments.

If no changes are made, benefits would be automatically reduced by roughly 23% starting in 2033.

What Would Benefit Reduction Mean?

If reductions occur across the board, here’s what the estimated impact could look like by income tier:

Source: Moore Financial Advisors

Will Cuts Affect Current Retirees?

This is one of the most frequent questions we’re asked. So far, Congress has never reduced benefits for current retirees

Most proposals focus on future beneficiaries or apply gradual changes, such as adjusting the retirement age or benefit formulas for younger workers.

However, if lawmakers do nothing, all beneficiaries—current and future—would face automatic cuts in 2033 due to the trust fund running dry.

What Is Being Proposed to Fix This?

There are several ideas on the table, but no consensus yet. Here are a few commonly discussed options:

  1. Raising the Full Retirement Age (FRA) Budget proposals supported by the Republican Study Committee and Project 2025 have called for increasing FRA from 67 to 69; some versions of these proposals would roll out before 2033. This effectively cuts benefits for many, especially low- and middle-income workers, even if reductions aren’t framed as “cuts.”
  2. Lifting the Payroll Tax Cap Currently, wages above $176,100 (2025) are not taxed for Social Security. One proposal would apply payroll taxes on income up to $250,000.
  3. Targeted Cuts for Higher Earners Some reform plans propose benefit reductions for higher earners while preserving or increasing them for lower earners. These reductions would go into effect around 2029 for new beneficiaries with higher incomes, phasing reductions up to 50% for individuals earning over $180,000 in modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) or joint earners over $360,000.
  4. Increasing Payroll Taxes Slightly Raising the 6.2% payroll tax to 6.4% or higher to bring in more revenue.
  5. Means Testing Some proposals suggest reducing benefits or slowing the cost of living adjustment (COLA) for retirees with high net worth or income from other sources.
  6. Backdoor Privatization Plans Recently Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that “Trump baby accounts” or child savings accounts are a back door for privatizing Social Security, although he later back-peddled on that statement. This raised concerns about eventually shifting FICA payroll tax funding into private investment vehicles—undermining Social Security’s defined-benefit structure and reducing program coverage over time—even if not explicitly cutting current benefits.
  7. Alternative Funding Models Republican Senator Bill Cassidy and Democratic Senator Tim Kaine have proposed an alternative funding model for the safety net program, which would supplement the program’s Trust Fund with a new diversified pool of investments. Their proposal would create a new, parallel investment fund for Social Security. They estimate that the fund would require an up-front federal investment of $1.5 trillion, and propose that it be given 75 years to grow. The Treasury would shoulder the burden of supporting current benefit levels through borrowing during those 75 years. At the end of 75 years, the fund would pay the Treasury back and supplement payroll taxes to help fill the future gap.

Important: No plan has been signed into law yet—but there is broad bipartisan agreement that something must be done before 2033.

If I’m Eligible, Should I Start Benefits Now?

If you’ve reached Full Retirement Age (FRA, currently 67) and are waiting until age 70 to claim your maximum benefit, you may be wondering if you should claim now to avoid possible benefit reductions in the future.

Here’s our advice:

  • There’s no clear reason to change course—yet.
  • For now, the rules remain unchanged. By waiting until age 70, you still earn delayed retirement credits, increasing your benefit by up to 8% per year between FRA and 70.
  • Current beneficiaries are the least likely to face reductions.
  • Starting benefits now doesn’t necessarily “lock in” protection against cuts—but neither does waiting expose you to significantly more risk. Historically, any benefit reductions or reforms have applied to future retirees, not those already collecting. Some proposals (see below) include making changes before 2033, but none to date include cuts for current beneficiaries before 2029.
  • Cuts (if they happen) would likely be phased in or income-based.
  • Congress has options. For example, they could preserve full benefits for those already collecting, or protect lower earners while modifying formulas for higher-income individuals.
  • We recommend continuing to base your claiming decision on longevity, tax, and income needs, not on speculation. If your plan supports delaying until 70, it likely still makes sense to do so—unless there’s a sudden policy change (which we will monitor closely).

What Does This Mean for Your Financial Plan?

While the uncertainty surrounding Social Security is real, it’s important to remember:

  • Cuts are not guaranteed, and changes are likely to be phased in
  • If you’re already collecting—or soon will be—you are less likely to see reductions
  • For younger clients, we plan with a margin of safety—factoring in modest benefit reductions as part of our retirement projections

As always, we are monitoring developments and will adjust your plan if needed.

If you have questions about how Social Security fits into your personal plan—or if you’re nearing retirement and want to discuss timing your benefits—please reach out.

-SM

Summer Reading Series: Rethinking Investing

Summer Reading Series: Personal Finance

Rethinking Investing by Charles D. Ellis

Comprehensive, to-the-point, and short, Ellis’ Rethinking Investing: A Very Short Guide to the Long Term gives key tenets on how to achieve long-term financial goals.

Truthfully, I’d say it’s fair to assume that whoever is reading this client letter has likely already financially positioned themselves well (you’re taking time out of your day to read book recommendations from a financial advisor’s newsletter, and that has to say something).

However, I think this book can be particularly powerful for young people.

I can say from personal experience that there is no lack of social media personalities trying to sell you their drop-shipping method or cryptocurrency coin – all through their affiliate links, of course.

So I find Ellis’ explanations of compound interest, accessible diversified funds, and the always-wise “live within your means” recommendations quite refreshing. It’s not much longer than 100 pages so why not give it a read?

And if you do, pass it along to a young person in your life; it’s not particularly groundbreaking or incredibly provocative, but it surely is practical.

-Greg

Pass the SALT, and More on Taxes

Lawmakers are considering new bills to make several provisions of the TCJA permanent and to introduce additional modifications to tax law. The following article provides an update on new tax legislation, and presents an example of how raising the SALT cap could provide a measure of tax relief.

Tax policy is now at the top of the agenda for the US Congress.

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 brought significant changes to the US tax code, including lowering income taxes for many. But much of the TCJA is set to expire at the end of 2025.

The House narrowly passed their version of a new tax bill, entitled “The One Big Beautiful Bill Act” on May 22. The Senate is now debating their version. Identical legislation must pass through both chambers before becoming law.

Here are some of the key provisions of the House version of the new tax law:

 Makes permanent the current 7 individual federal income tax brackets

  • Bumps up standard deduction by $1,500 in 2025; and $1,000 per year in future years
  • Provides an additional standard deduction of $4,000 for those over 65 until 2028; phases out for individuals earning above $75,000 and couples earning above $150,000
  • Increases child tax credit to $2,500 per year for next four years
  • Introduces new kind of child savings account (“Trump Savings Account”) designed to help parents save, where parents can contribute $5,000 annually in after-tax dollars until child reaches age 18
  • Expands estate tax exemption to $15 million per person / $30 million per couple
  • Raises cap for the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction to $40,000 per household starting in tax year 2025 from the current $10,000

We will report more fully on the tax changes when legislation is finalized.

However, since the increase in the SALT cap, if it does pass, likely will result in more people itemizing their taxes (versus taking the standard deduction), and could yield significant tax savings, we’ve provided an example of how it may work, below.

The House bill increases the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000 for taxpayers earning up to $500,000. The cap and income threshold would increase by 1% annually over the next ten years under the proposed bill.

The SALT deduction allows taxpayers who itemize to deduct certain state and local taxes—such as income and property taxes—from their federal taxable income.

The $10,000 cap was introduced in 2017 under the TCJA and has been a point of contention, particularly for residents in high-tax states where state and local taxes often exceed this limit.

If enacted, this change in the SALT cap could provide substantial tax relief for taxpayers who have significant state and local tax liabilities.

Homeowners with high property taxes or individuals with substantial state income taxes could see a notable reduction in their federal taxable income, potentially lowering their overall tax burden.

As an example, let’s assume that a family with annual income of $275,000 has the following expenses:

  • Property taxes: $18,000
  • State income taxes: $10,000
  • Mortgage interest: $8,000
  • Charitable contributions: $12,000

Since their property and state income taxes are currently subject to the SALT cap of $10,000 under the current law, their deductions would total $30,000:

  • SALT: $10,000
  • Mortgage interest: $8,000
  • Charitable contributions: $12,000

Since their total itemized deductions of $30,000 would be less than the standard deduction, they would take the standard deduction of $33,200 in 2025 (assuming no change from the current law).

If the SALT cap is increased to $40,000, this same family would be able to deduct all their property and state income tax, and they would have the following deductions:

  • SALT: $28,000 ($18,000 property plus $10,000 state income tax)
  • Mortgage interest: $8,000
  • Charitable contributions: $12,000

This family would then be able to itemize $48,000 in deductions, giving them an additional $14,800 in deductions. If they are in the 24% tax bracket, the increased SALT cap would save them $3,552 in Federal taxes.

While the House has passed their bill, it still requires approval from the Senate, where the outcome is uncertain due to differing views on fiscal policy and tax equity.

Therefore, while the proposed changes could offer tax advantages for some, they are not yet law.

We will continue to monitor the progress of this legislation and assess its implications for your individual tax planning strategies.

-RK

Medicare Advantage Open Enrollment

Our founder Susan Moore contributed the following update for Medicare planning

The Medicare Advantage Open Enrollment Period (MA OEP) is currently underway and runs from January 1 to March 31, 2025.

This is an important time for individuals enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans to review their coverage and make any necessary changes.

What is Different about the 2025 MA OEP?

For the 2025 MA OEP, there are no significant changes to the enrollment process itself. However, it’s important to be aware of broader updates affecting Medicare coverage in 2025:

  1. Changes in Plan Availability: There is a reduction in the number of Medicare Advantage plans available in 2025. Some insurers that previously offered Medicare Advantage have left the market. Additionally, some healthcare providers have stopped accepting certain Medicare Advantage plans, so it’s critical to verify that your preferred providers are still in-network.
  2. Adjustments in Premiums and Benefits: While the average monthly premium for Medicare Advantage plans has decreased to $17.00 in 2025 from $18.23 in 2024, some plans may have adjusted their core benefits or reduced supplemental offerings like gym memberships. It’s essential to review any changes to your plan’s benefits and costs.
  3. Introduction of a $2,000 Out-of-Pocket Cap for Part D: Starting in 2025, Medicare Part D plans will implement a $2,000 annual cap on out-of-pocket prescription drug expenses. Once you reach this limit, you won’t have to pay additional costs for covered drugs for the remainder of the year.

What You Can Do During MA OEP

During this period, if you are currently enrolled in a Medicare Advantage plan, you have the following options:

  1. Switch to a different Medicare Advantage Plan: If your current plan no longer meets your needs, you can change to a different Medicare Advantage plan.
  2. Drop your Medicare Advantage plan and return to Original Medicare: You can disenroll from your Medicare Advantage plan and switch back to Original Medicare (Parts A and B). You can also enroll in a standalone Part D prescription drug plan if needed. Note that in most states when someone switches to Original Medicare from Medicare Advantage, insurers can require medical underwriting in order to purchase a Medigap (Medicare Supplement) policy. This means the insurer can deny Medigap coverage if you have certain health conditions. Four states (CT, MA, ME, and NY) have implemented protections that prohibit underwriting in these situations.
  3. Adjust Prescription Drug Coverage: If your Medicare Advantage plan includes drug coverage, you can change to another MA plan that better suits your medication needs.

Key Considerations

When evaluating your Medicare Advantage options, here are some factors to consider:

  • Provider Network: Ensure your preferred doctors, specialists, and hospitals are included in the network of any plan you are considering.
  • Drug Coverage: Check whether your medications are covered and if there are changes to the formulary or pricing.
  • Out-of-Pocket Costs: Review premiums, deductibles, and co-pays to understand your total potential expenses.
  • Additional Benefits: Some plans offer extra benefits such as vision, dental, hearing, and fitness memberships. Compare these benefits to see if they align with your needs.

Common Questions

  • Can I switch plans multiple times during this period? No, you are allowed to make only one change during the MA OEP.
  • What if I miss the deadline? After March 31, you generally cannot make changes until the next Annual Enrollment Period (October 15 – December 7), unless you qualify for a Special Enrollment Period due to specific life events.

Next Steps

If you’re considering a change to your Medicare Advantage coverage, we encourage you to act early to avoid delays.

Two important resources for help and more information are the Medicare web site, and a State Health Insurance Assistance Program (SHIP) counselor, available at your local senior center.

-SM

Becoming Averse to Loss Aversion

For most of us, when markets go down, anxiety goes up.

And since markets haven’t gone down substantially for some time, it’s possible that angst is waiting in the wings for a lot of us and could be set loose by the next downturn.

I am not anticipating an imminent demise of the bull run in stocks. But after two great years of returns, it’s important to remember that corrections are normal occurrences.

On average, we can expect stocks to drop 14% from recent peaks in any given year, according to research from JP Morgan Asset Management (recoveries typically follow closely on the heels of these declines).

And it’s important to remember that we as humans are hard wired to disproportionately fear financial losses relative to appreciating similarly sized gains.

We obviously can’t control what happens in the financial markets. But we can control how we respond to financial market developments.

The goal of this article is to provide more information about the concept of loss aversion; explain how it affects investors; and share strategies to overcome it.

Learning to become averse to loss aversion is a strategy that should yield positive results over the long term for your portfolio.

What is Loss Aversion?

Loss aversion is a key principle in behavioral finance introduced by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in Prospect Theory. Our friends at research outfit DataTrek have this to say about Loss Aversion:

  • Classical economics has it that the gain or loss of $1 has the same “utility”, both on the upside and downside.
  • Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky proved this was not the case with their work on Prospect Theory, published in 1979, with Kahneman winning the Nobel Prize in 2002.
  • The possibility (or “prospect”) of losing a particular amount of money weighs about twice as heavily on the human psyche as the prospect of gaining that same amount of money is welcoming.
  • Simply put, we are hard coded to be risk-averse, which is probably biologically optimal but not when it comes to investing.

This asymmetry – that people experience the pain of losses about twice as intensely as they experience the pleasure of equivalent gains – can lead investors to behave irrationally, often making suboptimal decisions due to an emotional response rather than a rational evaluation of risk and return.

How Loss Aversion Affects Investors

  • Excessive Conservatism: Investors may hold too much cash or invest heavily in low-risk assets, such as bonds, due to an outsized fear of losses. This risk aversion can cause them to miss out on long-term market growth.
  • Holding onto Losing Investments Too Long: Investors often refuse to sell losing stocks because doing so would “lock in” a loss. This can lead to further declines in portfolio value if the asset continues to underperform.
  • Selling Winners Too Soon: The fear of losing unrealized gains can prompt investors to sell winning stocks too early, limiting their upside potential while holding onto losing positions in the hope of a rebound.
  • Panic Selling in Downturns: During market downturns, loss-averse investors may sell off assets at a loss to avoid further perceived pain. This often results in missing out on the subsequent recovery.

Strategies to Overcome Loss Aversion

Investors can take several steps to mitigate the negative effects of loss aversion.

  1. Maintain a Long-Term Perspective
  • Historical Context:Market downturns are normal and historically temporary. The S&P 500, for instance, has endured numerous recessions, bear markets, and crashes but has always recovered over time.
  • Review Past Recoveries: Looking at previous downturns (e.g., 2008 financial crisis, 2020 COVID-19 crash) can provide reassurance that patient investors tend to be rewarded.
  1. Avoid Emotional Decision-Making
  • Recognize Emotional Triggers: Fear and anxiety can drive investors to sell at the worst possible time. Understanding that these emotions are natural but not always rational can help maintain discipline.
  • Pause Before Making Major Moves: Implement a 24- or 48-hour rule before making significant financial decisions to avoid impulsive reactions.
  1. Stick to a Predefined Investment Plan
  • Set Portfolio Rules in Advance: Establish clear rules for buying, selling, and rebalancing to avoid making decisions based on market noise.
  1. Use Mental Accounting to Categorize Risk
  • Investors can separate their portfolios into different “buckets,”such as:
    • A short-term stability bucket (cash, bonds) for near-term needs.
    • A growth bucket (stocks, real estate) for long-term wealth building.
  • This mental separation reduces the fear of short-term lossesaffecting immediate financial security.
  1. Rebalance Rather Than Panic-Sell
  • Automatic Rebalancing:If stock prices fall, rebalancing forces investors to sell overperforming assets (like bonds) and buy underperforming assets (stocks) at a discount.
  • Stay within Target Allocations:Keeping the portfolio’s stock-to-bond ratio aligned with the original strategy ensures disciplined investing.
  1. Use Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)
  • Invest Regularly Regardless of Market Conditions: Investing a fixed amount regularly reduces the emotional burden of market timing.
  • Buy More Shares at Lower Prices:Instead of fearing lower prices, DCA allows investors to accumulate more shares when prices are low, boosting returns when markets recover.
  1. Maintain Cash Reserves
  • Emergency Fund:Having 6–12 months of living expenses in cash reduces the need to liquidate investments during downturns.
  • Dry Powder Strategy:Investors who keep some cash on hand can take advantage of market downturns by buying assets at depressed prices.
  1. Diversify to Reduce Portfolio Volatility
  • Asset Allocation: Spreading investments across stocks, bonds, real estate, and alternative assets helps mitigate losses.
  • Low-Correlation Assets:Investments like Treasury Bills and Treasury bonds can provide balance when equities decline.
  1. Avoid Market Timing
  • Missing the Best Days Hurts Returns:Data shows that missing just a few of the best market days (which often occur after the worst days) significantly lowers long-term returns.
  • Stay Invested:Rather than guessing market bottoms, staying in the market increases the likelihood of benefiting from recovery.
  1. Turn Market Declines into Tax-Saving Opportunities
  • Tax-Loss Harvesting: Selling losing investments to offset capital gains taxes can improve after-tax returns.
  • Roth Conversions:Converting traditional IRA funds to a Roth IRA during downturns allows investors to pay taxes at lower asset values, leading to greater tax-free growth.

The key to overcoming loss aversion during a market downturn is sticking to a well-thought-out plan, staying diversified, and avoiding knee-jerk reactions.

Implementing these strategies can help you manage their emotions, take advantage of market opportunities, and build long-term wealth.

-RK

Social Security Fairness Act

On January 5, 2025 the Social Security Fairness Act became law. It will provide new or additional Social Security benefits for about three million individuals who receive government pensions from jobs not covered by Social Security.

Two parts of the law governing Social Security payments have been eliminated: the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and the Government Pension Offset (GPO). The new law eliminates the reduction of Social Security benefits that resulted from WEP and GPO.

Upon signing the legislation into law, President Biden said those affected will receive lump sum payments from 2024 in 2025. President-elect Trump also supported the legislation.

Additional details of the Social Security Fairness Act relating to WEP and GPO are:

  • The new law repeals the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) which reduced Social Security or disability benefits for certain public sector workers such as teachers, nurses, police officers, and firefighters who receive pensions from jobs where they didn’t pay Social Security payroll taxes.
  • WEP applied to 2.1 million beneficiaries, or 3.1% of the total in 2022, according to the Social Security Administration. Most retirees affected by the WEP have pensions that are higher than average Social Security benefits, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities said.
  • The law also eliminates the Government Pension Offset (GPO) which reduces Social Security benefits for about 750,000 spouses, widows, and widowers who receive pensions from jobs not covered by Social Security taxes.

Most state and local government workers (and all federal workers hired in 1984 or later) are in jobs covered by Social Security. Pensioners who worked in Social Security-covered employment in their government jobs will not receive increased Social Security benefits from the law.

According to the non-partisan news source TheHill.com, which focuses on US politics and government policy, actually making the new benefit structure a reality will be a challenge for the Social Security Administration (SSA).

An example of the additional administrative burden on the SSA: prior to the new law, individuals affected by the Government Pension Offset may not have been eligible to receive any Social Security spouse or survivor payments, so a number of these individuals likely did not file for Social Security and, as a result, are not in the SSA’s computer systems.

The Congression Budget Office expects the SSA will have to process new applications as a result of the legislation, and the new applications will lead to an extra 70,000 people coming onto the rolls for payments.

The Hill comments that SSA’s administrative budget has been in sharp decline over several years, and the SSA recently testified that it now has “one of the lowest staffing levels in 50 years.”

In their most recent communication from January 6, the SSA said: “The Social Security Administration is evaluating how to implement the Act. We will provide more information as soon as available.”

Keep in mind that the Social Security Fairness Act is retroactive to January 2024, so beneficiaries affected by the repealed provisions should receive lump-sum payments for benefits lost during 2024.

If you have been affected by WEP and GPO, what can you do to ensure that you receive your benefits?

  1. If you previously have filed for Social Security, the SSA is not recommending that you take action at this time (though you may wish to verify that your contact and banking information with the SSA are up-to-date)
  2. If you are receiving a public pension and are interested in filing for Social Security benefits, you may file online at ssa.gov/apply
  3. Keep an eye on the SSA website for further announcements at: ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/social-security-fairness.act
  4. Watch your email for communication from your former employer on this topic
  5. Check your bank statements closely on a regular basis during 2025 to see if / when your payment has been adjusted and to verify that you’ve received a lump sum payment related to 2024

Retirement Plan Super Catch Ups

Savers age 50 and older who are participants in retirement plans are permitted to do “catch-up” contributions of $7,500 in 2025. Add this to the annual elective deferral limit of $23,500, and over-50s can put up to $31,000 into their retirement plans.

This applies to most 401(k) participants, as well as those with 403(b)s, governmental 457 plans, and the federal government’s Thrift Savings Plan.

A subset of older 401(k) plan participants can make even higher catch-up contributions, starting in 2025. SECURE Act 2.0 increases the catch-up contribution limit for those participants who are age 60, 61, 62, or 63.

For these savers, the deferral limit is the greater of $5,000 or 150% of the normal “age 50” catch-up contribution limit ($7,500 in 2025). The 2025 super catch up equals $11,250, which means the total eligible for deferral for this subset is $34,750. This limit will be indexed for inflation starting in 2026.

Workplace plans need to offer this “super catch up” option for workers to be able to make a super catch-up contribution. Not all plans have this feature. Plan participants age 60-63 should check with their retirement plan administrator to see if this option is available.

Once a retirement plan participant reaches age 64, they revert to the age 50 catch-up contribution in effect for that year.

Altogether, the availability of “super catch-up” contributions could be attractive for many folks within the applicable age range and who have the funds available to do so. Consider that a couple where each partner is eligible would be able to contribute nearly $70,000 in total!

-RK

CTA Deadline Reminder

Given the importance of the new federal law to business owners, we’re re-publishing this article, which appeared in the October newsletter.

The Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) is a new federal law that aims to curtail money laundering and other illegal activities by making it clear who the individuals behind a particular business entity are.

The CTA was enacted in early 2021 and requires “reporting companies” to file information by January 1, 2025.

If you are a small business owner or own a corporate entity, such as an LLC, you likely will be required to report your company’s beneficial ownership information (BOI) to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) bureau, which is a division of the US Department of the Treasury.

We encourage all our clients who think that they might be subject to the CTA to contact their CPA or attorney to determine if they are subject to CTA reporting and to assist in handling the filing.

Below are links to resources so that you can learn more about the CTA if you think you might be required to file.

Key CTA Resources:

Moore Financial Advisors cannot give specific CTA advice or assist with actual filing.

-RK

Medicare Brief: What to Know Prior to Open Enrollment

Our colleague and MFA founder Susan Moore contributed the following update on Medicare.

Medicare open enrollment period starts October 15 and continues through December 7.

During the open enrollment period, Medicare enrollees can make certain changes in their coverage. Here are some of the changes you might consider during this enrollment period:

  • If you’re enrolled in original (traditional) Medicare, change your Part D drug plan
  • If you’re enrolled in Medicare Advantage, switch to a different Advantage plan
  • Switch from original Medicare to Medicare Advantage
  • Switch from Medicare Advantage to original Medicare – but note below that limitations apply in some states

This year’s enrollment period may be one of the more significant in Medicare’s 59-year history due to some of the changes that are coming. Here is what we know about Medicare changes and costs for 2025.

Medicare Part D

Most Advantage plans include drug coverage at no extra cost, but many people on original Medicare buy a stand-alone Part D plan for drug coverage. While the average projected monthly Part D premium will decrease to $46.50 from $53.95 in 2024, some plans have announced significant increases in premiums.

For this reason, it’s especially important this year to shop for your Plan D coverage. You may be able to lower your annual drug costs by switching to a different Plan D.

To compare plans, go to the Medicare.gov site and set up your account. In the “What do you want to do?” section, select “Open all options”, then “Find health & drug plans.”

One of the bigger developments for 2025 is a new, $2,000 cap on out-of-pocket drug costs. It applies to drug coverage through both stand-alone Part D and Advantage plans.

But it only applies to covered drugs, so it’s really important to make sure your plan covers the specific medications you take. Approximately 1.5 million Medicare beneficiaries have drug costs that exceed that amount, so this change will be a big help to them.

Switching to a Different Medicare Advantage Plan

Medicare Advantage plans are also seeing big changes. Insurers are facing increasing cost pressures, and many will push higher expenses onto members.

Enrollees may see changes in out of pocket costs. Although the average monthly premium for all Advantage plans is likely to drop slightly, it’s important to pay attention to changes in copays, deductibles, and other benefits (e.g., dental, vision, health clubs, etc.)

Switching from Medicare Advantage to Original Medicare

Some Advantage plans may even exit the market next year. If your Medicare Advantage plan is being eliminated, you must actively enroll in a new plan to stay in the Advantage program.

If you don’t make a choice, you will automatically be placed in traditional Medicare for 2025 and have the chance to buy a Medigap supplement plan without going through an underwriting process.

Normally in most states (except during a narrow period when you first enroll in Medicare,) when someone switches from Advantage to original Medicare, they must pass underwriting to buy a Medigap supplement plan. (MA, CT, ME and NY do not allow Medigap insurers to require underwriting for those who switch.)

If you switch from Medicare Advantage to original Medicare because your insurer exited the market, you will not have to undergo underwriting in order to obtain a Medigap plan.

Some people switch from Medicare Advantage to original Medicare because they don’t like the restricted network of an Advantage plan, or because frequent copays for services have become expensive.

If you make this change and you want drug coverage, be sure to sign up for a Medicare stand-alone prescription drug plan (Plan D), unless you have creditable drug coverage from another source. If you do not, and you decide to sign up for Part D coverage later, you may face a penalty for late enrollment.

And if you want a Medicare Supplement Plan (or Medigap Plan, which covers most out of pocket costs) you’ll need to sign up for that then, too.

In most states (except MA, CT, ME, and NY) Medigap insurers are not required to sell you a policy after your first year on Medicare if you don’t meet the medical underwriting requirements. In that situation, they can deny coverage or charge higher premiums.

Medicare Part B

Everyone who has Medicare coverage (original Medicare or Medicare Advantage) gets Medicare Part A free, but pays for Medicare Part B.

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) hasn’t said yet how much the base cost of Part B will be in 2024, but the annual Medicare Trustees report in March forecast the monthly price to rise from $174.70 to $185.00, a 6% increase, in 2025.

Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount (IRMAA)

Some people pay more in IRMAA charges for Medicare Part B and Part D based on income.

Your tax return for 2023 will be used to determine whether you will be subject to an IRMAA charge for 2025. If you retired in or after 2023, or had another life-changing event (e.g., marriage, divorce, death of spouse, etc.) you can file form SSA-44 to request that your IRMAA amount be reduced or eliminated.

IRMAA charges have not been released yet for 2025 but are expected to be about 6% higher than in 2023.

If you have questions or would like help evaluating your Medicare options, please let us know.

-SM

Inherited IRAs: Final Ruling from the IRS

Most people who have inherited a retirement account since 2020 must take minimum distributions every year if the original owner was already old enough to be taking Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs). And beneficiaries must withdraw whatever is left over by the tenth year.

The original SECURE Act, which took effect in 2020, included rule changes for retirement account withdrawals, including a requirement to empty an Inherited IRA within ten years, if you inherited it after 2019 (the “10-Year Rule”).

But since passage of the Act, there has been confusion regarding how beneficiaries who are not surviving spouses must handle their inherited retirement account withdrawals.

We’ve written on this topic previously in April 2024 and August 2023, and now we have clarity through Final Regulations issued by the IRS on July 18, 2024.

Non-Eligible Designated Beneficiaries (essentially anyone who is not a surviving spouse) must take RMDs annually from Inherited IRAs.

The RMD is a minimum amount that’s calculated by dividing the account’s balance at the end of the previous year by the owner’s remaining life expectancy, using the IRS’s actuarial data. Account owners can take larger distributions, which may be advantageous in lower-tax years.

If you inherited an IRA after 2019 and have not taken a distribution or have missed a year, that’s OK.

The IRS has confirmed that there will be no penalty and no requirement to make up a missed distribution – which means the new regulation effectively starts with RMDs required to be taken in 2025.

In addition to this, there is other regulatory guidance for specific circumstances where the new rules for Eligible and Non-Eligible Designated Beneficiaries apply.

These regulations introduce more complexity to the process of tax planning around retirement accounts, particularly after the death of the account’s original owner.

If you’ve inherited an IRA after 2019 and have questions regarding your withdrawals, please reach out to us.

-RK