The phrase “On your marks” is used to instruct competitors in a race to prepare themselves in the correct starting position. This was telegraphed to US citizens on July 21, when Joe Biden bowed out of the Presidential election contest.
PredictIt is a New Zealand-based online prediction market that offers exchanges on political and financial events. The benefit of allowing people to put their money where their mouths are, when it comes to politics, is that we get an unvarnished view as to what people really think of who will win an election.
Here’s a chart of how folks were laying bets around the outcome of the US Presidential race from mid-April through mid-July.
The spread between Trump and Biden / Harris widened substantially following Biden’s poor debate performance in late June.
And here’s an updated 90-day picture, as of July 31, ten days after Biden bowed out.
It indicates that momentum is favoring Harris, who now has a slight lead on PredictIt.
The betting market confirms what recent opinion polls are saying: the race for US President is currently in a statistical dead heat.
Many of us have strong feelings about the people who run for office and take on the responsibility to represent us in government.
Because politics touches many parts of our lives and plays a role in how we as a nation are perceived by others in the world, it’s understandable why a presidential election stirs sentiment.
However, when investing, it’s advisable to set emotions aside.
Policies, not personalities, are likely to have the greatest impact on financial markets in the years ahead.
-RK