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Donna Cournoyer

How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking

Summer Reading Series: Non-Fiction

How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking by Jordan Ellenberg

Fair warning from someone who has read this book: it, unfortunately, does not guarantee infallibility.

However, upon reading, it will ensure your errors are backed by logic. Filled with real-world examples of fallacies, corrections on common statistical mistakes, and rebuts of common arguments, How Not to Be Wrong makes you think about how you think.

In an intuition-driven world, slowing down one’s thought process can help provide insights to vexing problems. Luckily, the reader does not need a robust understanding of convoluted mathematical topics (such a book would’ve gone right over my head).

Ellenberg breaks down key concepts for you into their essential aspects. Pertinent and applicable, How Not to Be Wrong leads to greater understanding of the world in which we live.

-Greg

These Truths: A History of the United States

Summer Reading Series: Non-Fiction

These Truths: A History of the United States by Jill Lepore

My annual personal knowledge project, beginning around Independence Day, is to read a substantive work focused on US history.

Presidential biographies and early American history are a recurring favorite and occupy significant space on my bookshelves, from the likes of Chernow, McCullough, and Philbrick. While all learned men and accomplished authors, I acknowledge that Ron, David and Nathaniel may be interpreting history through lenses that might reveal similar perspectives.

This year I’ve decided to branch out and, for starters, choose an author born in the second half of the 20th century. I landed on These Truths, written by Harvard professor Jill Lepore. The author takes on the herculean task of writing a history of the United States, from 1492 to present day.

In her introduction, Lepore tells the story of how the US Constitution was circulated before being put to the vote, and how the essential question posed anonymously by Alexander Hamilton in the first essay of the Federalist Papers, was: shall we be ruled by reason and choice, or shall we be ruled by violence and force?

Lepore contends that this is the question of American history and remains as pertinent and important today as it was in 1787. And although there is a great deal of anguish in American history, Lepore finds “an extraordinary amount of decency and hope, of prosperity and ambition, of invention and beauty.”

I suspect it will take the better part of the summer for me to digest the 900+ pages of Lepore’s work. But in a shift from my usual summer read of focused biography, I’m looking forward to experiencing her interpretative, wide-scope, fresh-perspective narrative.

-Rob

A Walk in the Woods

Summer Reading Series: Non-Fiction

A Walk in the Woods: Rediscovering America on the Appalachian Trail by Bill Bryson

As a lifelong New Englander, and an avid hiker in my early twenties (a fraction of what time I expected my hiking experience would be), I have always been amazed by all of nature around us.

Although my love for the ocean competes with the mountains of New England, I find myself drawn to stories of wilderness experiences in the mountains.

Bill Bryson takes us through the fascinating history of the Appalachian Trail, along with some forestry history, as he tells the tale of a quintessential story of two men, not exactly at peak fitness, and far past twenty, as they head out to take on the arduous task of hiking the Appalachian Trail.

Bryson brings a laugh out loud sense of humor with his writing, and weaves in a balance of environmental awareness at perfect intervals throughout the story. This is balanced with detailed accounts of the angst and emotions of human beings as he and his companion face the real perils of the wilderness.

So, as we near the middle of hiking season in New England, if you are looking to get inspired to experience some of the unexpected, challenging, and life-changing adventures of hiking all or any of the 2,200 miles of the Appalachian Trail that traverses an area from Georgia to Maine, Bryson’s A Walk in the Woods is a must read for summer.

Or, it may even make your daily walk, or a local hike, seem like a walk in the park, and you can live the experience of the AT vicariously through Bryson’s brilliant account of his own experiences.

-Donna

10% Happier

Summer Reading Series: Non-Fiction

10% Happier: How I Tamed the Voice in My Head, Reduced Stress Without Losing My Edge, and Found Self-Help That Actually Works by Dan Harris

Harris was an ABC reporter, and sometime host of Nightline, who had a panic attack on national television while reporting on Good Morning America.

The first part of this book is an entertaining story of how he searched his way through various paths in spirituality and self-help to try to get control.

10% Happier takes readers through his explorations of neuroscience and other disciplines that led him to a meditation practice that provides him with calm, focus, and a little more happiness.

-Susan

The Long Walk

Summer Reading Series: Fiction

The Long Walk by Stephen King (as Richard Bachman)

I am a lazy reader – if I don’t like a book within the first ten pages, I won’t flip to the eleventh. This was most certainly not the case for The Long Walk, as I turned to the last page the same day I turned the first.

The visceral elegance of King’s prose leaves the reader feeling as if they are a fly on the wall, observing every horrifying detail of each character. Set in a dystopian future in Maine, 100 teenage boys embark on a walk down Route 1; if they walk too slow or stop, they are gruesomely removed from the contest.

The last walker standing wins a considerable amount of money and a prize of his choice. Sure, the premise of the walk itself is compelling, but the real story lies in the interactions of the boys. Though a perhaps on-the-nose metaphor for the true cost of sacrifice to get ahead in an ever-competitive world, The Long Walk is an intriguing read.

-Greg

The Passage

Summer Reading Series: Fiction

The Passage by Justin Cronin

As a high-schooler, I discovered the writing of Stephen King. I have a distinct memory of a summer in the mid-1980s, where I worked evening shifts, would often return home after midnight, and read The Stand through the dark hours until dawn. Consuming what at the time may have been considered King’s masterwork was made particularly memorable because of my weeks-long, vampire-like existence.

Now deep into middle age, I’ve been drawn in by a King-like author who writes about vampires. Justin Cronin has created a science-experiment-gone-wrong, post-apocalyptic world where an engineered virus nearly wipes out humanity. The unleashed walking dead are far more treacherous (and intriguing) than zombies.

The Passage was written in 2010 (the first of a trilogy) but the subject matter manages to tap into abeyant concerns of today’s post-pandemic reality. While the plot itself is absorbing (and wonderfully haunting), the masterful writing delights. At various points, characters debate the reasons for persisting in a seemingly forsaken world. How apropos.

-Rob

North Woods: A Novel

Summer Reading Series: Fiction

North Woods: A Novel by Daniel Mason

I often find myself thinking about life and our earth on a large scale. Where do we as humans fit in with the incomprehensible and fleeting passage of time? What is my individual relationship with this world and what impact am I having on our planet? But then again, I am a dreamer.

In North Woods: A Novel by Daniel Mason, we are taken through passages of time that involve centuries, in a western Massachusetts town. The history of the inhabitants of a cabin and what becomes of the land and home is revealed over time.

Mason’s writing has a kind of magical quality which pulls you in with details of nature and wildlife and invokes a sense of wonder about small moments in time as well as vast passages of time, dispersed with some humor as well.

Through introspection, Mason examines the depths of life, love, and transgressions through the portrayal of the spirits of the inhabitants of the land (including a cougar). The mystical aspect of his story will take you to another world – a great story for a summer read.

-Donna

The Heaven & Earth Grocery Store

Summer Reading Series: Fiction

The Heaven & Earth Grocery Store: A Novel by James McBride

Chicken Hill is a run-down neighborhood of Jews and African Americans in Pottstown, PA. This is a rich, compassionate story of characters whose lives intertwine.

The story revolves around two key dramas: the institutionalization of a deaf boy in a home for the mentally ill, and the discovery of a skeleton at the bottom of a well. The author weaves a story that shows us that even in dark times, it is love and community—heaven and earth—that sustain us.

-Susan

June 2024 Market Recap: Stock Market Heat Wave

As we move into the second half of 2024, the US economic engine is chugging along.

Strong growth in employment and wages has boosted disposable income for workers. Household net worth continues to climb, pushed up by stock market and house price gains. And consumers appear poised to enjoy summer with a sunny, ready-to-spend mood.

According to JP Morgan chief strategist David Kelly: “consumer spending will likely keep growing, although more slowly, in the months and quarters ahead, suggesting that it would take a significant shock elsewhere to tip the US economy into a recession.”

With sunny skies and no recession in sight, the investment environment for stocks has been hot.

The S&P 500 index of large company US stocks returned 15% in the first half of the year, and strong performance by a handful of big tech companies contributed about two-thirds of the index’s return.

So far in 2024, the S&P 500 Index has made a record high 33 times. The Nasdaq 100 index, which has a large weighting to technology stocks, has made a record high 23 times.

Foreign stock market returns have been less ebullient but still positive. The MSCI’s Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (EAFE) Index has gained 5.8% year-to-date through the end of June.

Here’s a chart from Bloomberg that puts the current stock market rally into historical perspective.

The S&P 500 has posted an 85% advance since 2019 (red line), even despite some challenging stretches, like “Pandemic” 2020 and “Inflation Scare” 2022.

Compare this to the 238% rally during the last five years of the Roaring Twenties (black line) in the previous century, and the 220% climb of the 1990s Internet Bubble (green line).

When viewed from an historical perspective, the current bull market appears to be more run-of-the-mill than exceptional, and less likely to be cited as an example of irrational exuberance that led to an inevitable bursting of a bubble.

The bond market has been a far chillier place to invest so far this year. Short-term bond returns have been in the range of 1-3%.

However, doubts and worries persist about the direction of intermediate-term interest rates. Most recently, market participants are raising concerns about the Federal government’s budget deficit, inflation, and the outcome of the 2024 Presidential election.

Intermediate term investment grade bond yields have risen year-to-date, which means returns for many bonds with maturities beyond three years have been negative so far in 2024. If current bond market trends persist, intermediate-term bonds could post another down year, which would mean losses in three of the last four years.

Here’s a snapshot of stock and bond performance for the last six quarters:

US Stocks = S&P 500 Index; US Bonds = Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index

-RK

2024: Unraveling the Tumultuous Year of the College Admissions Process

Our colleague and college specialist Donna Cournoyer contributed the following update for college planning

Applying to college can be a complex and multifaceted process, including several steps and requiring careful planning and attention to detail.

The most recent yearly cycle of the college admissions process has just finished, as high school seniors and their parents have completed the years-long college preparation and detailed application process by making a financial commitment to the school they will attend for the next four years this beginning this coming fall.

The current level of complexity of this process sent some families into procrastination mode, pushing off the inevitable facing of facts. For others, it means assuming an uncomfortable level of debt.

For those who started early and bravely committed to fully engaging and digging into the process- navigating all the steps and intricacies along the way- many found themselves completely exhausted emotionally, and unfortunately for some, financially.

How did we get here? Has the craziness finally peaked with the FAFSA debacle of 2024-2025? Not likely. Although we will learn more when the process starts up again this fall with the next application season.

The college application process in 2024 has been particularly tumultuous due to several key trends and changes that have intensified its complexity and competitiveness.

Key Trends and Challenges

  1. Surge in Applications: The number of college applications has increased dramatically. This surge is partly due to the widespread adoption of test-optional policies, which has encouraged more students to apply to a broader range of schools. Applications to public institutions have seen an 82% increase since 2019-20, while private institutions saw a 47% increase​ (IvyWise)​​ (Crimson Education US)​.
  2. Early Decision and Early Action: Early application options have become more popular, but acceptance rates for these rounds have decreased. Many top universities still admit a significant portion of their incoming class through these early rounds, which makes the competition fierce.​
  3. Impact of Affirmative Action: The Supreme Court’s ruling on affirmative action has removed race and ethnicity as factors in admissions decisions. Colleges are now exploring new ways to maintain diverse student bodies, such as through supplemental essays and other holistic review strategies.​
  4. Financial Aid Delays: The rollout of a new FAFSA form resulted in a large decline in applications, and caused delays, which means students received financial aid offers much later than usual. This had a huge impact for some students and families and their ability to make informed decisions about which college to attend​.
  5. AI in Admissions: AI technology is increasingly used by colleges to streamline the application review process, including evaluating transcripts and letters of recommendation. This has raised concerns about the authenticity of student submissions, especially with some students using AI tools to assist with their essays​ (CollegeData)​​ (College MatchPoint)​.

Overall, the college application process is a significant undertaking that requires organization, time management, and support from various sources.

Strategies for Applicants

  • Broaden Your Application List: Consider adding a mix of public and private institutions, including those that might not be traditionally prestigious but offer strong programs in your areas of interest.
  • Early Applications: Apply early if you are confident about your top-choice schools but be aware of the competitive nature of these rounds.
  • Holistic Applications: Focus on creating a well-rounded application that highlights personal experiences, extracurricular activities, and leadership roles.
  • Stay Informed: Keep up with the latest testing policies of your target schools and prepare accordingly.
  • Use AI Responsibly: AI can be a helpful tool, however, be sure your application essays contain your work and authenticity.

The 2024 college application process has indeed been chaotic, driven by increased application volumes, evolving admission policies, and the integration of new technologies.

Preparing for the upcoming college admissions season: Staying informed and strategically planning your application approach can help navigate these challenges effectively.

DC