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July 2024 Market Recap: Financial Market Rip Currents

A rip current is a strong, narrow jet of water that moves away from the coastline.

If you’re an ocean swimmer caught in one, the best strategy is not to fight it, but relax, go with the flow, and try to swim parallel to the beach. Eventually, you’ll move out of the rip current and be able to swim back to shore.

In mid-July, the first rip current began to move through the financial markets.

Tech stocks, which had been leading the broader stock market higher throughout 2024, stumbled. But small company stocks, which have lagged performance-wise for years, soared.

Below is a snapshot of financial market performance for July.

US Small Co = Russell 2000 Index; Foreign Stocks = MSCI EAFE Index; US Bonds = Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index; US Large Co = S&P 500 Index; Tech Stocks = Russell 1000 Technology Index

While political developments grabbed lots of headlines—including an assassination attempt of a former US President and the announcement that the sitting US President wouldn’t seek a second term—these weren’t events that had a large impact on financial markets.

The July outperformance of small company stocks appears to be linked to expectations for short-term interest rates.

Small companies rely mainly on banks for financing, whereas big companies have more borrowing options, including issuing bonds. Interest costs associated with bank debt float up or down with short-term interest rates.

Because of this reliance on bank loans, the thinking goes that small companies will get a financial boost as short-term interest rates fall. Many market participants believe that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates sooner rather than later, so demand for small company shares increased markedly in July.

Financial market prognosticators are referring to this preference to favor small company stocks over large company stocks a “rotation trade”. For investors with well-balanced portfolios, this phenomenon with the wonky name may be interesting to observe but needn’t be viewed as a call to action.

A second more consequential rip current also began moving through the financial markets in July.

This rip current has to do with the anticipation of an economic slowdown, and the feeling that the Federal Reserve has waited too long to bring down its target for short-term interest rates to provide financial relief to business and consumer borrowers.

The Employment Situation Report, released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, August 2, seemed to validate this concern, because it showed less robust US jobs growth and a higher unemployment rate.

From the recent peak on July 16 through August 2, US large company stocks have declined by 5.5%, and technology shares approached correction territory, having fallen by 9.5%.

Financial market choppiness, which we experienced in the second half of July, and which accelerated in early August, likely will be with us for the next few months.

August, in particular, has historically been one of the more volatile months for stocks.

Also, the US election cycle has moved into high gear, with more to come regarding policies (potentially good or bad) that might affect the economy and financial markets.

However, the US economy continues to be in a good place:

  • companies are still hiring
  • businesses are generally holding onto employees
  • corporate profits are rising
  • inflation is decelerating
  • the Federal Reserve is likely to bring down short-term interest rates soon

These economic positives should help investors ride through the financial market rip currents.

The chart below, published by the Hartford Funds, provides some perspective on what has happened to stocks in the past when the Federal Reserve (the Fed) reduces interest rates.

Hartford Funds identifies twenty-two periods of Federal Reserve interest rate reductions (when the Fed cuts rates) since 1929. In sixteen of these instances (72% of the time) stocks rose during the year of the Fed cuts.

Most pertinent to today’s situation: in all six instances when interest rate reductions occurred during times of economic expansion (grey bars in the chart above), stocks have finished higher by year end.

And the average annual gain during periods of economic expansion paired with Federal Reserve interest rate reductions has been 11%.

-RK

Your Guide to Sustainable Investing

Summer Reading Series: Personal Finance

Your Essential Guide to Sustainable Investing by Larry Swedroe and Samuel Adams

Since the start of my internship, I have learned that half of the knowledge requisite to work in finance is knowing financial acronyms and jargon. I say this jokingly, however I do believe that there is a kernel of truth to it – particularly in the space of sustainable investing.

Your Essential Guide to Sustainable Investing makes complex and multifaceted concepts, like Environmental, Social, & Governance (ESG) ratings, Socially Responsible Investing (SRI), and Impact Investing, digestible and approachable.

As explained by Swedroe and Adams, sustainable investing empowers investors to quite literally put their money where their mouth is by way of aligning one’s values with their investments, without sacrificing financial returns.

Becoming familiar with the ins and outs of sustainable investing terminology and investment management approaches, and how it all may impact one’s portfolio can only benefit the curious and engaged investor, and Your Essential Guide to Sustainable Investing is a great place to start.

-Greg

A Wealth of Well-Being

Summer Reading Series: Non-Fiction

A Wealth of Well-Being: A Holistic Approach to Behavioral Finance by Meir Statman

During one of my evening commutes from Belmont to Duxbury, I selected a podcast for some work-lite listening. The Long View, produced by Morningstar, the investment research company, releases mostly nerdy stuff that only advisors could possibly love.

I figured an episode entitled The Biggest Risks in Life Are Not in the Stock Market might offer a departure from the typical economic / market / business / analytic programs the crowd my Pocket Casts app.

The interviewee, Meir Statman, who is a serious academician at Santa Clara University, said at the outset: “If you want real risk, get married. And if you want more, have children.” I was immediately hooked.

It became clear during the episode that Statman has a passion for teaching about behavioral finance, thinking holistically, and promoting financial well-being.

In the book, as well as on the podcast, Statman’s sense of humor, compassion, and wisdom are evident as he explains his thesis: we need financial well-being to enjoy life well-being, but it is life well-being that we seek. And life well-being has many domains, including those of family, friends, health, work, education, religion, and society.

Statman contends: “Financial well-being comes when we can meet current and future financial obligations, absorb financial setbacks, and keep driving toward financial goals, such as adequate retirement income. Life well-being comes when we live satisfying lives, full of meaning and purpose.”

This book is an important one for those who provide financial advice, laying out a kind of evaluative framework and providing insight on how to understand clients’ critical needs, wants and wishes. It’s also written in a compelling, approachable way for individuals who are curious about behavioral finance and seeking a clearer path toward life well-being.

-Rob

The Price You Pay for College

Summer Reading Series: Non-Fiction, Personal Finance

The Price You Pay for College – An Entirely New Road Map for the Biggest Financial Decision Your Family Will Ever Make by Ron Lieber

Having a lengthy and detailed background in Higher Education and helping families navigate college, when I find a resource that truly gives helpful advice about how to approach costs realistically, I love to share it.

Lieber’s book helps demystify a lot of the college application and admissions process and identify truths, which are not all transparent for parents and college bound students, to say the least.

Some of this knowledge you would be hard-pressed to learn if you are not an “insider” or someone like Lieber, who makes it his job to understand the complexity and nuances of paying for college and shares his knowledge with the world.

He brings practical advice with a sense of compassion and understanding. In a system where costs are rising to unfathomable amounts, it makes sense to use resources to help provide a calm, prepared approach to paying for college, and Lieber helps in a realistic way with the details he shares in his book.

His last chapter is even about hope. And I share his sentiments – the hope that more (and better) resources for families trying to navigate college costs and decisions will lead to the best outcome for every student and parent.

-Donna

How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking

Summer Reading Series: Non-Fiction

How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking by Jordan Ellenberg

Fair warning from someone who has read this book: it, unfortunately, does not guarantee infallibility.

However, upon reading, it will ensure your errors are backed by logic. Filled with real-world examples of fallacies, corrections on common statistical mistakes, and rebuts of common arguments, How Not to Be Wrong makes you think about how you think.

In an intuition-driven world, slowing down one’s thought process can help provide insights to vexing problems. Luckily, the reader does not need a robust understanding of convoluted mathematical topics (such a book would’ve gone right over my head).

Ellenberg breaks down key concepts for you into their essential aspects. Pertinent and applicable, How Not to Be Wrong leads to greater understanding of the world in which we live.

-Greg

These Truths: A History of the United States

Summer Reading Series: Non-Fiction

These Truths: A History of the United States by Jill Lepore

My annual personal knowledge project, beginning around Independence Day, is to read a substantive work focused on US history.

Presidential biographies and early American history are a recurring favorite and occupy significant space on my bookshelves, from the likes of Chernow, McCullough, and Philbrick. While all learned men and accomplished authors, I acknowledge that Ron, David and Nathaniel may be interpreting history through lenses that might reveal similar perspectives.

This year I’ve decided to branch out and, for starters, choose an author born in the second half of the 20th century. I landed on These Truths, written by Harvard professor Jill Lepore. The author takes on the herculean task of writing a history of the United States, from 1492 to present day.

In her introduction, Lepore tells the story of how the US Constitution was circulated before being put to the vote, and how the essential question posed anonymously by Alexander Hamilton in the first essay of the Federalist Papers, was: shall we be ruled by reason and choice, or shall we be ruled by violence and force?

Lepore contends that this is the question of American history and remains as pertinent and important today as it was in 1787. And although there is a great deal of anguish in American history, Lepore finds “an extraordinary amount of decency and hope, of prosperity and ambition, of invention and beauty.”

I suspect it will take the better part of the summer for me to digest the 900+ pages of Lepore’s work. But in a shift from my usual summer read of focused biography, I’m looking forward to experiencing her interpretative, wide-scope, fresh-perspective narrative.

-Rob

A Walk in the Woods

Summer Reading Series: Non-Fiction

A Walk in the Woods: Rediscovering America on the Appalachian Trail by Bill Bryson

As a lifelong New Englander, and an avid hiker in my early twenties (a fraction of what time I expected my hiking experience would be), I have always been amazed by all of nature around us.

Although my love for the ocean competes with the mountains of New England, I find myself drawn to stories of wilderness experiences in the mountains.

Bill Bryson takes us through the fascinating history of the Appalachian Trail, along with some forestry history, as he tells the tale of a quintessential story of two men, not exactly at peak fitness, and far past twenty, as they head out to take on the arduous task of hiking the Appalachian Trail.

Bryson brings a laugh out loud sense of humor with his writing, and weaves in a balance of environmental awareness at perfect intervals throughout the story. This is balanced with detailed accounts of the angst and emotions of human beings as he and his companion face the real perils of the wilderness.

So, as we near the middle of hiking season in New England, if you are looking to get inspired to experience some of the unexpected, challenging, and life-changing adventures of hiking all or any of the 2,200 miles of the Appalachian Trail that traverses an area from Georgia to Maine, Bryson’s A Walk in the Woods is a must read for summer.

Or, it may even make your daily walk, or a local hike, seem like a walk in the park, and you can live the experience of the AT vicariously through Bryson’s brilliant account of his own experiences.

-Donna

10% Happier

Summer Reading Series: Non-Fiction

10% Happier: How I Tamed the Voice in My Head, Reduced Stress Without Losing My Edge, and Found Self-Help That Actually Works by Dan Harris

Harris was an ABC reporter, and sometime host of Nightline, who had a panic attack on national television while reporting on Good Morning America.

The first part of this book is an entertaining story of how he searched his way through various paths in spirituality and self-help to try to get control.

10% Happier takes readers through his explorations of neuroscience and other disciplines that led him to a meditation practice that provides him with calm, focus, and a little more happiness.

-Susan

The Long Walk

Summer Reading Series: Fiction

The Long Walk by Stephen King (as Richard Bachman)

I am a lazy reader – if I don’t like a book within the first ten pages, I won’t flip to the eleventh. This was most certainly not the case for The Long Walk, as I turned to the last page the same day I turned the first.

The visceral elegance of King’s prose leaves the reader feeling as if they are a fly on the wall, observing every horrifying detail of each character. Set in a dystopian future in Maine, 100 teenage boys embark on a walk down Route 1; if they walk too slow or stop, they are gruesomely removed from the contest.

The last walker standing wins a considerable amount of money and a prize of his choice. Sure, the premise of the walk itself is compelling, but the real story lies in the interactions of the boys. Though a perhaps on-the-nose metaphor for the true cost of sacrifice to get ahead in an ever-competitive world, The Long Walk is an intriguing read.

-Greg

The Passage

Summer Reading Series: Fiction

The Passage by Justin Cronin

As a high-schooler, I discovered the writing of Stephen King. I have a distinct memory of a summer in the mid-1980s, where I worked evening shifts, would often return home after midnight, and read The Stand through the dark hours until dawn. Consuming what at the time may have been considered King’s masterwork was made particularly memorable because of my weeks-long, vampire-like existence.

Now deep into middle age, I’ve been drawn in by a King-like author who writes about vampires. Justin Cronin has created a science-experiment-gone-wrong, post-apocalyptic world where an engineered virus nearly wipes out humanity. The unleashed walking dead are far more treacherous (and intriguing) than zombies.

The Passage was written in 2010 (the first of a trilogy) but the subject matter manages to tap into abeyant concerns of today’s post-pandemic reality. While the plot itself is absorbing (and wonderfully haunting), the masterful writing delights. At various points, characters debate the reasons for persisting in a seemingly forsaken world. How apropos.

-Rob