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May 2023

Donna Cournoyer
In Reading Recommendations

Dealing With Uncertainty

I am always interested to hear what’s capturing your attention, and what you’ve felt helpful in adding to your knowledge of personal finance. So I am thankful to a client who just this week suggested a book that seems most appropriate for today’s climate.

In The Uncertainty Solution – How to Invest With Confidence in the Face of the Unknown, author John M. Jennings offers his perspective on ways we can navigate our behavioral biases and explains the benefits of focusing on the long term.

These are topics that I address frequently in my letters and are important ingredients for investing success. You might find it helpful to hear a similar message from a different voice.

Donna Cournoyer
In Financial Planning

Time to Schedule a Tax Review

Susan and I have been working with a planning tool that helps us review your tax situation and spot opportunities for tax savings. The technology is terrific and requires a scanned version of your most recent tax return to start the process.

For this month’s Planning Point, we have a request: please upload a copy of your 2022 tax return to one of our secure file sharing systems: ShareFile or Advyzon.

After we receive your 2022 tax return, we will reach out to you to schedule some time for a tax review. Thank you in advance for providing your information!

Donna Cournoyer
In Economy

Take It to the (Debt) Limit

The debt clock is ticking louder.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office recently revised its projections for federal revenues and expenses.

According to the CBO there is now “significantly greater risk that the Treasury will run out of funds in early June”.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on May 1 that the US government could become unable to pay its bills as soon as June 1 if Congress doesn’t raise the debt limit soon.

These new estimates set a shorter timeline than many experts previously had been forecasting.

House Republicans approved legislation last week that would raise the borrowing limit for about a year, but parts of the legislation are unpalatable to Democrats.

In other comments she’s made recently, Treasury Secretary Yellen is not mincing words: “A default on our debt would produce an economic and financial catastrophe. A default would raise the cost of borrowing into perpetuity.”

President Biden has called top lawmakers from both sides of the isle to the White House for a meeting on May 9 to try to forge an agreement for a debt limit increase.

The situation remains tenuous, with extremely high stakes. As investors, how should we think about this?

The bond fund manager PIMCO has a group of researchers dedicated to understanding how public policy impacts financial markets, and they recently shared their thinking on the debt ceiling.

Here are some takeaways on the debt ceiling issue from a recent PIMCO note:

  • More than 70% of Americans support avoiding a default, even without spending cuts – according to a recent CBS News / YouGov poll
  • Because popular sentiment supports raising the debt ceiling, default is not a political winner, and leadership on both sides of the aisle know this
  • If past is prologue, a resolution will likely happen at the eleventh hour and only after some brinksmanship
  • The average peak-to-trough performance of the S&P 500 in the month before a debt ceiling resolution over the past dozen years has been about -6.5%
  • A debt ceiling deal is the most likely outcome

From my perspective, it is inadvisable to significantly alter long-term investment strategies designed to support long-term financial plans, in anticipation of political events, especially those that have a low likelihood of transpiring.

The key to managing through possible larger-than-normal stock and bond price swings is to hold enough in liquid reserves (cash and short-term investments like money markets and short-term bond funds) to meet your near-term cash needs.

RK

Donna Cournoyer
In Economy

Another Bank Bites the Dust

Turmoil in the banking sector persisted throughout April and continues into May.

As deposit flight persisted at First Republic Bank, the pressure on the bank’s financial situation proved untenable. During the last trading day of April, the bank’s stock price cratered.

Over the weekend, regulators seized First Republic, and after a short bidding process, sold the lender to JP Morgan before the markets opened on Monday, May 1.

Three of the four largest-ever U.S. bank failures have occurred in the past two months. First Republic, which had more than $250 billion in assets at the end of the first quarter, ranks just behind the 2008 collapse of Washington Mutual Inc. Rounding out the top four are Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, both of which failed in March.

While the immediate crisis may be over for the largest US banks, trouble still seems to be bubbling for mid-sized and smaller regional lenders. Los Angeles-based PacWest Bancorp, which had over $40 billion in assets at year-end 2022, experienced a precipitous stock price drop in the past week and is said to be ‘exploring strategic options’.

Persistent problems in the financial sector can be a source of concern for everyone. For folks who’ve been saving and investing for a while, worry about a 2008 financial crisis re-run in 2023 is understandable.

Key points to keep in mind, and reasons to believe that the US financial system is on firmer footing today, are:

  • The biggest US banks are better fortified compared to fifteen years ago, with significant liquidity and healthy balance sheets
  • Regulatory and private sector action has helped contain damage through swift wind downs of troubled institutions
  • Shareholders of the failed banks have borne losses
  • Most importantly, depositors have been protected

For a more in-depth explanation of what’s going on in the financial sector, I found the most recent memo from Howard Marks, Lessons from Silicon Valley Bank, to be helpful.

Marks has been investing in the credit markets for decades and is a sort of ‘Warren Buffet of Bonds’. He believes that another widespread banking crisis, a-la-2008, is unlikely.

In addition to gaining a degree of reassurance from his analysis, I found Marks’ perspective on the psychology of what’s going on to be particularly insightful. He concludes his memo by saying:

“When psychology swings in the direction of hopelessness, it becomes reasonable to believe that bargain hunters and providers of capital (i.e., investors with a long-term perspective) will be holding the better cards and will have opportunities for better returns.”

RK

Donna Cournoyer
In Investment Strategy

From TINA to BANANA: The Benefits of Higher Bond Yields

On Wednesday, May 3, the Federal Reserve delivered the 10th interest rate hike since beginning its fight against inflation in earnest in March 2022. The latest action pushed the Fed Funds short-term interest rate above 5% for the first time in 15 years.

In his press conference following the rate hike announcement, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that he expects the economy to slow down and inflation to continue to decline in 2023.

This implies that the Fed likely will be able to take a break from boosting short-term interest rates soon, and that we may be in for an extended period of Fed inaction.

In this note I share some perspective on what a pause after a period of interest rate increases means for investors holding bonds and bond funds.

In the months and quarters following the pandemic, Wall Street people often used the acronym TINA (There Is No Alternative) when referring to stocks.

After interest rates dropped to the floor in 2020, and stayed there for some time, bonds offered little by way of returns, while many stocks and stock funds paid dividends and appreciated in price, especially in 2020 and 2021.

In 2022, the financial markets turned from TINA to TONR (There’s Only Negative Return) as investors suffered through high inflation, rising interest rates, and stock and bond bear markets.

However, the change in the interest rate environment, which started in 2021 and accelerated in 2022, brought a benefit, by way of higher yields, that improves the long-term outlook for bond fund holders.

In 2023, we’ve got BANANA – Bonds Are Now A Nice Alternative. In some cases, bonds and bond funds now present compelling yields with satisfactory total return potential.

The chart below compares where yields were for different types of bonds two years ago (in early March 2021) with where yields are today, following a period of inflation-fighting by the Federal Reserve.

The sharp yield increase resulted in a steep decline in bond prices in 2022. What does this mean for investors going forward?

DoubleLine, the bond fund manager, has done some research on this topic. Their analysis shows that the prospects for positive returns from bond fund holdings, in years following sharp yield rises (and corresponding price drops) is quite good.

The average price of bonds in the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index (a broad measure of High Quality Corporate and Government bonds) going back to its inception in 1977 is $100. Today, the average price is in the low $90s.

According to DoubleLine, investing in High Quality bonds when the average price of the index is between $90 – $100 has typically meant returns of between 5% – 10% during the next 12 months. In years following sharp yield increases, bond returns historically have been positive.

While 2022 was painful for bond fund holders, the next several years (assuming the average bond price remains below $100) may be more pleasurable for investors who have significant bond allocations in their portfolios.

 

Donna Cournoyer
In Market Updates

April 2023 Recap: Stocks’ Sunny Outlook

Despite April showers, the financial markets maintained their sunny outlook.

For the month of April, the S&P 500 index of large company US stocks rose by 1.6%. Foreign stocks climbed higher still, up by 2.9%, helped by a US dollar that weakened against other major currencies. Year-to-date as of April 30, US stocks gained 9.2% and foreign stocks were up by 12.2%

Bonds rose along with stocks. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index rose by 0.6% last month. Through the end of April, the bond market rally in 2023 translated to a gain of 4.2%.

Below is a summary of April returns.

RK

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